Where Should Texas Tech Be Seeded When the Field Is Announced In Two Weeks?
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LUBBOCK, Texas — For Texas Tech, this season has not been an effortless ride. While fighting week after week in the strongest conference in college basketball, the Red Raiders have faced adversity after losing JT Toppin to a season-ending ACL tear, and have not wavered.
Since losing their star forward, Texas Tech is 3-0, including a massive win against then-No. 4 Iowa State on the road in a chaotic Hilton Coliseum.
When news broke about Toppin's injury, fans and analysts alike had major doubts about this team and their ceiling for the season. The Red Raiders have done a phenomenal job silencing that doubt, winning without their best player, and keeping its fanbase's hopes alive.
The Seeding Question
With two games remaining in the regular season, including a tough road matchup against BYU in the finale, the questions arise: Where will the Red Raiders stand when it comes to NCAA tournament seeding? How high can they go? And how low can they fall?
According to ESPN's bracketology, Texas Tech is currently projected as a 4-seed. But with so many games left to play around the country, things can certainly still shift.
Path to a 3-Seed
With a win at home against TCU and a win on the road against BYU, the Red Raiders could confidently be in line to jump up to a 3-seed. They may need help from other results, as the teams projected above them are currently Kansas, Houston, Nebraska, and Gonzaga.
It won't be easy, but a strong finish to the regular season could propel the Red Raiders ahead of any one of those teams, depending on how those programs finish themselves.
That also doesn't take into account how these teams will perform in their conference tournaments. With two Big 12 teams, Houston and Kansas, currently ranked ahead of them, how these teams perform in the Big 12 tournament may be the deciding factor for who ends up with which seed come Selection Sunday.
On their resume, Texas Tech has losses to both teams but also has a win against Houston at home. They could very well see either of these teams again in the Big 12 tournament, potentially setting up a rematch against Kansas or a trilogy matchup against Houston on a neutral site.
Risk of Dropping to a 5-Seed
Of course, on the opposite side of the table, if Texas Tech loses either of their final two regular season games or has a poor showing in the conference tournament, don't be surprised to see them drop to at least a 5-seed.
The committee is very much aware of JT Toppin's absence, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them factor that into their March seeding decisions.
Of course, this is all looking toward the future—which is exactly what the Red Raiders need to avoid doing. For now, they need to focus on one game at a time, and that starts with a home matchup against TCU on Tuesday.
Win that, and the rest will take care of itself.
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Kade Nix is a sports writer covering Texas Tech on SI. He specializes in college basketball, college football, and the NFL. In 2021, he founded Kade’s Draft Room, a sports website that ran until 2025, and has an extensive background writing for multiple channels and sports websites. In addition to his writing experience, Kade has hands-on football scouting experience, including time as a Texas area scout for the Hula Bowl, giving him a unique perspective on player evaluation and the college sports landscape.