Can Texas Tech Clinch a Big 12 Title Game Berth During Week 13?
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The phrase of the season for Texas Tech football has been "since 2008." Whether it's their record, their ranking, or their appearance on ESPN's "College GameDay," the Red Raiders are doing things they have not done in nearly two decades.
However, they have the chance to do something this season they have never done before: secure a bid to the Big 12 Championship Game. That legendary 2008 season was the closest the scarlet and black came to the conference title, splitting the division three ways with Oklahoma and Texas but losing out on a tiebreaker.
With one game left on their regular-season calendar, the 2025 Texas Tech Red Raiders are on the verge of their first-ever appearance. Ranked sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings, Tech boasts a 10-1 record, 7-1 in Big 12 play.
The Red Raiders have a bye week in Week 13 before returning to action in Week 14, but can they secure their trip to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, before their next game?
For Texas Tech, the path to the conference championship is simple: win and you're in. The Red Raiders have earned the privilege to control their own destiny heading into Week 14.
However, if the team wants to be 100% secure before its Week 14 trip to Morgantown, W. Va., to face the West Virginia Mountaineers, they will need some help from others.
Texas Tech has a few paths to a potential conference title game appearance in Week 13. As things currently stand, there is a four-way tie between two-loss teams in conference play, complicating things for the one-loss Red Raiders.
Team | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
Texas Tech | 7-1 | 10-1 |
BYU | 6-1 | 9-1 |
Utah | 5-2 | 8-2 |
Houston | 5-2 | 8-2 |
Arizona State | 5-2 | 7-3 |
Cincinnati | 5-2 | 7-3 |
Week 13 Big 12 Schedule for Teams With 2 or Fewer Conference Losses:
• Kansas State (5-5, 4-3) at Utah (8-2, 5-2)
• TCU (6-4, 3-4) at Houston (8-2, 5-2)
• Arizona State (7-3, 5-2) at Colorado (3-7, 1-6)
• BYU (6-1, 9-1) at Cincinnati (7-3, 5-2)
Texas Tech secured victories against three of these teams: BYU, Utah, and Houston. However, they lost to Arizona State and will not face Cincinnati. That makes the most important result for Texas Tech a potential loss by Arizona State. It is the only team in the Big 12 that beat the Red Raiders, complicating any tiebreaker scenarios with both teams.
Arizona State faces a struggling Colorado squad in Week 13 that is currently second-to-last in the Big 12. A win for the Buffaloes would be a win for the Red Raiders. However, a Sun Devils loss alone would not secure Texas Tech's spot. To fully secure a Big 12 title game berth, Texas Tech needs one of four scenarios:
• Arizona State loss + Cincinnati loss OR
• Arizona State loss + Houston loss OR
• Arizona State loss + Utah loss OR
• BYU loss + Utah loss
Arizona State loss + Cincinnati loss: According to the Big 12's multiple-team tiebreaker policy, the winners in a tiebreaker scenario are first decided by "winning percentage in games among the tied teams." If not every team played one another, it advances to the next stage. However, if one team did beat every team involved in the multiple-team tiebreaker, they advance.
This is why an Arizona State loss and a Cincinnati loss automatically secures a bid for Texas Tech — the only teams that could be involved in a two-loss tiebreaker in this scenario would be BYU, Utah, and Houston, all teams that Tech beat.
Arizona State loss + Houston loss: A Houston loss also advances Texas Tech for a different reason. Without a Week 13 Cincinnati loss, Texas Tech would not be guaranteed a round-robin sweep, further advancing the tiebreaker scenario.
In fact, an Arizona State loss and a Houston loss would push this all the way to the fourth tiebreaker scenario: conference opponent win percentage (or strength of conference schedule).
Texas Tech would be situated above BYU and Cincinnati in this scenario while placing one spot below Utah, securing Texas Tech's spot with a Week 13 loss from Arizona State and Houston, regardless of Week 14 outcomes.
Arizona State loss + Utah loss: Much like with an Arizona State loss and a Houston loss, this scenario comes down to the strength of the conference schedule. Texas Tech would place above two-loss BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati, giving them the edge for the conference title game.
BYU loss + Utah loss: If Arizona State wins in Week 13, Texas Tech would need losses from BYU and Utah. By virtue of conference strength of schedule, Texas Tech would have the advantage over Arizona State, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati, giving the Red Raiders the path to a conference title game.
However, all of this hinges on Tech securing a playoff berth in Week 13, before suiting up for Week 14. None of the results in Week 13 matter as long as the Red Raiders beat the Mountaineers on Saturday, Nov. 29. You can visit bball.notnothing.net to test out the scenarios for the final two weeks of Big 12 action.
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-43389ae7766a84cbb8a6c33939d17968.jpeg "Jordan Epp")
Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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