Is Texas Tech in the Perfect Spot in the Latest College Football Playoff Rankings?

Texas Tech was ranked No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings heading into Week 13. Does that put the Red Raiders in the perfect spot to strike?

Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive lineman Lee Hunter (2) reacts in the second half of the game against the BYU Cougars at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

During the initial unveiling of the College Football Playoff rankings, Texas Tech came in at No. 8. However, the Red Raiders have climbed to No. 5 heading into Week 13 after a standout win over then-No. 7 BYU and a blowout victory against UCF — along with some key losses by ranked programs.

With two weeks left in the regular season, the Red Raiders find themselves in the perfect position, no matter how the college football landscape shakes up.

Up to No. 5️⃣ in the @CFBPlayoff rankings. pic.twitter.com/jQsZ9IsUVo

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 19, 2025

As things currently stand, the Red Raiders are slated to face off with the No. 24 Tulane Green Wave. As the highest-ranked Group of Five school, they would be the 12th seed in the College Football Playoff, traveling to Lubbock, Texas, to play at Jones AT&T Stadium.

In this scenario, Texas Tech — as the first team out for a first-round bye — faces arguably the easiest opponent in the first round. Tulane's adjusted EPA/play ranks 56th among FBS programs, 28 spots lower than the next-lowest playoff-projected team.

This would set the Red Raiders up for a historic game: the school's first-ever College Football Playoff game coming in front of the home crowd. Tech would also be considered the heavy favorite in this scenario, as expected against a Group of Five school.

Per @FDSportsbook these are your spreads for projected CFP first round games...

Tulane at Texas Tech (-21.5)
Notre Dame (-3.5) at Oklahoma
Alabama at Oregon (-4.5)
Miami at Ole Miss (-3.5)

— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) November 19, 2025

However, with two weeks of regular-season action and conference championship weekend remaining, the chances of Texas Tech standing pat at No. 5 seem unlikely. The Red Raiders still have to formally secure their bid for the Big 12 Championship Game — which they can do in Week 13.

With the season near its end, the margin for error is razor-thin, meaning Texas Tech can not afford to slip up. A win against West Virginia is paramount, and while a loss in the Big 12 championship may not be a death knell, Tech can not afford to find out how far it may fall.

However, the teams within the top four present an interesting opportunity for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech sits at No. 5 while Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia rank Nos. 1-4, respectively. Ohio State and Indiana could potentially face off in the Big 10 title game, as could Texas A&M and Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

While none of those matchups are guaranteed, with the SEC and Big 10 still very much up for grabs, the Red Raiders are in the perfect spot at No. 5 to climb up if others fall short and Texas Tech wins. As long as the Red Raiders keep winning, a first-round bye is well within the squad's range of outcomes.

Texas Tech's Reggie Virgil celebrates his third touchdown against UCF with teammates Coy Eakin (3) and Sheridan Wilson | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

However, one thing that could hold Texas Tech back is the fate of No. 4 Georgia in the SEC. The Red Raiders were ranked one spot behind the Bulldogs, who could potentially serve as a roadblock.

Georgia has finished its conference schedule, with games against Charlotte and No. 16 Georgia Tech left on its schedule. If the Bulldogs win out, they would have a record of 11-1 (7-1 in the SEC). However, they do not control their own destiny for the SEC title game.

If Alabama wins the Iron Bowl against Auburn in Week 14, it would have the advantage over Georgia by way of conference opponent win percentage. This could mean a fourth-ranked Georgia team would have no championship weekend contest to move them up or down in the rankings, potentially interfering with Texas Tech's path to a first-round bye.

Ultimately, the most important thing for Texas Tech is to win. With a victory in Week 14, the Red Raiders are guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, setting them up for one of the biggest games in program history and a potential ticket to the College Football Playoff.

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