Quinten Joyner And The NIL Sunk-Cost Fallacy

For the Red Raiders, dealing with an injury after spending high dollars on a transfer is a risk in today's college football

Sep 7, 2024; Pullman, Washington, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire walks back to the locker room before a game against the Washington State Cougars at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

The Texas Tech Red Raiders took the college football world by storm this offseason after spending a record $28 million putting their roster together for the 2025 season. The hopes were high for the Red Raiders, they still are, but an injury blow to transfer running back Quinten Joyner has halted the parade being prepared in Lubbock.

Spending nearly a million dollars, outbidding defending national champions Ohio State, they landed Joyner, one of the most sought-after backfield additions from the transfer portal this past winter. Now he's out for the year with a torn ACL.

While the Red Raiders won't have the same spending power this offseason due to the new "cap," how does this affect the team's willingness to spend high money on a recruit?

Calculated Risks

Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For Joey McGuire's team, the loss hurts. Losing one of the country's most talented running backs would hurt anyone. It especially hurts the pockets that have recently lined the halls of Lubbock. While still flush with cash, losing a player with the price tag of Joyner creates a ripple effect. It creates hesitation and requires approaching with caution.

That's not how I expect the Red Raiders to approach it, though. Their mega booster, Cody Campbell, is a business tycoon who didn't earn his wealth through dumb luck. He knows you must spend money, but he also knows wasted cash is worse than unspent money. James Blanchard, the GM, has the same vision, believing that working smart in NIL is needed.

This is part of a shift in Lubbock, prioritizing spending their allotted money on high school recruits. In a case like that, they are tied together for more than a year due to contracts, so even if an unfortunate injury occurs, shut them down for a year, and they still have more coming.

While injuries do matter, especially with expectations in Lubbock for the 2025 season, injuries don't care how much you paid; they happen. Taking calculated risks is necessary, but sometimes, you have to leap.