Staff Predictions for Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
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The storyline the No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders will hear repeated over and over is about their complicated history against the Kansas State Wildcats. It has been one-sided since the two sides joined the Big 12: 15-6 in favor of the Wildcats, who are operating on an eight-game winning streak.
Beyond their history, the matchup has some similarities between the two sides. Both offenses want to run the ball to establish the passing game while controlling the line of scrimmage. On defense, they want to contain the ground game, limit big plays, and create turnovers, allowing their offense to win the race on the scoreboard.
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Kansas State has been on a roll, winning three of its last four games and rebounding from a 1-3 start to the season. With three straight games of 34+ points, the Wildcats' offense has come alive, winning shootouts. They are 4-1 when the game's total goes over 50 points, and their four losses came by a combined 13 points.
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders are just one game removed from their first loss of the season. A 26-22 stumble against Arizona State caught Texas Tech by surprise on the road. The Red Raiders rebounded against a lowly Oklahoma State team, but now they have another road test.
In many ways, the game against Arizona State felt like an aberration. It is the only game where the defense allowed more than 17 points, the offense scored fewer than 34, and Texas Tech won by fewer than 24.
Regardless of their shortcomings, the Red Raiders are the favorites against a surging Wildcats squad that was a preseason contender to win the conference title. It's narrowly projected to be a one-score game with a total of 51.5, according to DraftKings.
Prediction | Predictor |
|---|---|
Texas Tech 33-21 | Jordan Epp |
Texas Tech 35-31 | Julio Gonzales Jr. |
Texas Tech 31-27 | JD Andress |
Texas Tech 34-31 | Ryan Kay |
Jordan Epp: The Red Raiders have a clear path to victory: pressure the quarterback, run the ball, hold the line of scrimmage, and don't make mistakes. They have shown the ability to master any of these from game to game but have yet to truly put them all together at the same time. If they can hit on a few of these, they match up favorably against K-State. However, they may face an unexpected battle if they fall short.
JD Andress: Kansas State is a confusing team; the talent is still there from pre-season, where they were one of the conference's favorites to win it, and quarterback Behren Morton might not be 100%. A lot points to the Red Raiders being upset in this one, but I don’t think it happens.
Julio Gonzalez Jr.: I think this game is going to be one of the best of the weekend. After a slow start to the season, Kansas State is back at .500 (4-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12) after winning three of its last four games. During those games, Avery Johnson has accounted for 12 total touchdowns, and he will be the one Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1) needs to contain if they are to win and set up a possible top-10 showdown against BYU next week in Lubbock, Texas.
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders will have Morton back under center after he missed the last two games. He will be the key for Texas Tech, as Will Hammond will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey will also be huge in this one, and I expect the Red Raiders will try to get them involved early.
I had this game marked before the start of the season as a toss-up, and I still do despite Texas Tech being more than a touchdown favorite. If they can limit Johnson, they will win. Look for a big game from Jacob Rodriguez.
Ryan Kay: It's crucial to consider recent momentum and the performances of both teams in the weeks preceding this game. The current tactics and decisions made by the two coaching staffs on game day are also crucial in deciding how this game turns out. The way each side plays on offense, defense, and special teams in this game is crucial, as are turnovers and penalties.
The most significant historical factor is Kansas State's recent winning streak, which largely adds a psychological component to the game. But in the end, both teams' performance and existing potential will determine the outcome of this game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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