Texas Tech Football's Best Interests and Scenarios to get a Top 4 CFP Seed
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Let's take a look at the best outcomes of Week 14 and Championship Week for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) has a high chance of getting a top-four berth and a first-round bye in this season's College Football Playoff (CFP). Last week's CFP rankings had the Red Raiders as the fifth seed hosting Tulane.
Texas Tech needs to win its last regular-season game against West Virginia and the Big 12 Conference Championship game and hope that teams rated higher or near them lose in their Week 14 game and/or in their conference championship game. This will help the Red Raiders get into the top four of the College Football Playoff final rankings.
For Texas Tech to finish in the top four, the following things need to happen with little to no exceptions.
The most important goal for Texas Tech is to win all its remaining games, which includes defeating West Virginia on the road and then playing and winning its game against BYU in the conference championship game. This is what the Red Raiders control, and they will more than likely need at least one of the top four teams that are ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings to lose a game in the next two weeks.
The main reason Texas Tech would benefit from playing and defeating BYU in the Big 12 Championship instead of Utah is that the Cougars have only one loss, while the Utes have two, and BYU is currently ranked higher than Utah. They have to win the Big 12 Championship game against BYU or Utah. The worst-case scenario is that Arizona State would get in with a UCF upset of BYU or a West Virginia upset of Texas Tech and a Kansas upset of Utah. Yes, it would be satisfying for Red Raider fans to avenge their loss to the Sun Devils earlier in the season, but it would not benefit them as much as a win over BYU in the Big 12 championship game.
Being a Big 12 champion with a 12-1 record should help them greatly in the quest to be in the top four and get one of the four first-round byes. However, more than likely, one of those four teams currently ranked higher in the CFP will need to lose a game to guarantee the Red Raiders a spot in the top four. In other words, Texas Tech needs teams ranked No. 1–4 to lose in order for them to move up from their current No. 5 spot and into the top four.
Here is a look at the current top four teams in the CFP rankings that one of which needs to lose a game in week 14 and/or in their conference championship game to greatly increase Texas Tech's chances of earning a top four seed.
Ohio State is undefeated, but they would need to lose against Michigan, which is a legitimate possibility since the game is on the road. Additionally, the Buckeyes have lost four consecutive games to the Wolverines. That would only put the Buckeyes at one loss, so they would also have to lose to Indiana in the Big Ten Conference championship game. If this were to happen, there is a scenario in which Texas Tech would move into the top four.
Indiana is less likely to fall out of the top four due to them being undefeated like Ohio State, and even though they are playing on the road against their in-state rival, Purdue, in week 14, the Hoosiers defeated the Boilermakers 66-0 last season and are very likely to defeat Purdue this season by a similar score. Even if Indiana were to lose to a team like Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game, they would more than likely still be ranked in the top four of the CFP final rankings.
Texas A&M is an intriguing situation for many reasons. Depending on how Red Raiders fans feel about the Longhorns and Aggies, it would benefit Texas Tech if Texas defeated Texas A&M in their week 14 matchup, even though many Red Raider fans may not be thrilled personally with a Longhorns victory. Like Ohio State, Texas A&M would more than likely have to lose to Texas as well as in the SEC Championship game to Georgia in order to be knocked out of the top four of the CFP rankings.
Georgia is in a similar position to Texas Tech in regard to already having a loss this season. The Bulldogs are also ranked in the top four already, one spot ahead of the Red Raiders. Georgia has a difficult game against in-state rival Georgia Tech, but they are still the favorites to win it. However, if the Bulldogs were to lose in the SEC championship game, that would give them two losses, and if Texas Tech were to win their next two games, they probably would be ranked ahead of Georgia in the final CFP rankings.
For Texas Tech to realistically achieve a No. 2, No. 3, or No. 4 seed, the following conditions must be met.
Texas Tech ends the regular season 12–1 and is the Big 12 Champion. Texas A&M suffers a loss to Texas in Week 14 and the SEC Championship, resulting in their season ending at 11-2. Georgia Tech beats Georgia in Week 14 to give the Bulldogs their second loss of the season. In Week 14, either Ohio State or Indiana loses, and the team that finishes with one loss also loses in the Big Ten Championship, resulting in a final record of two losses for that team.
If Texas Tech is the only Power Conference winner with just one loss, they will probably be ranked extremely high and might be in the running for the No. 2 seed. If Texas Tech ties with another Power Four conference champion who also has one loss but a potentially weaker strength of schedule, they could still be in contention for the No. 3 seed.
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Ryan Kay is a journalist who graduated from Michigan State in 2003 and is passionate about covering college sports and enjoys writing features and articles covering various collegiate teams. He has worked as an editor at Go Joe Bruin and has been a contributor for Longhorns Wire and Busting Brackets. He is a contributor for Texas Tech On SI.