3 Keys to Victory for Texas Longhorns vs. NC State in First Four

What do the Texas Longhorns need to win their First Four matchup with the NC State Wolfpack to advance to the Round of 64?

Texas Longhorns guard Dailyn Swain dribbles the ball during the first half as Texas A&M Aggies guard Rylan Griffen defends at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

For the second season in a row, the Texas Longhorns were one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament's field of 68.

As a result, Texas is having to play its way into the Round of 64 with a matchup against the NC State Wolfpack on Tuesday, March 17.

The Longhorns have a strong résumé and several big wins under their belt, but a 1–5 skid heading into March Madness gives cause for concern. What does Texas need to win its First Four matchup with NC State and advance to the first round against the BYU Cougars?

Win the Rebounding Battle

Texas Longhorns center Matas Vokietaitis rebounds against Vanderbilt Commodores forward Devin McGlockton and guard Duke Miles during the first half at Moody Center. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Texas is 1–8 this season when it ties or loses the rebounding battle. This includes losses to Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Kentucky, as well as a non-conference win against Rider. However, when winning the rebounding battle by five or more, Texas is 16–4.

Matas Vokietaitis, a second-year center from Lithuania, and star forward Dailyn Swain are leading the team on the glass with 6.8 and 7.6 rebounds per game, respectively. And it's not just about winning the rebounding battle, it's about not losing it.

The Longhorns are 66th in the country in rebounds per game but allow the 13th-fewest rebounds per game to opponents. Part of this is due to the team’s offensive efficiency; it ranks 13th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive rating and 32nd in field goal percentage.

Texas should be able to control the glass against NC State, a team that is -32 this season in rebound differential, a good sign for the Longhorns' offense.

Get Ahead Early

Texas Longhorns guard Tramon Mark shoots at the basket against Georgia Bulldogs guard Blue Cain at Stegeman Coliseum. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When NC State loses, it loses big. Six of its 13 losses have come by double-digit points, and it is 3–6 in games decided by six points or fewer.

The Wolfpack has conceded 87.3 points per game over its last nine contests and has allowed 85+ points six times over that stretch. Texas has several versatile scorers, allowing them to take advantage of NC State’s vulnerable defense.

The quartet of Swain, Vokietaitis and guards Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope all average over 13 points per game, and forward Camden Heide averages 45.9% from three-point range. Every member of the Longhorns’ starting lineup is a threat to score.

If Texas can get to an early lead, the Wolfpack — 86th in adjusted defensive rating — will have a hard time slowing the Longhorns down. An early lead could be the difference, as Texas has struggled to stop teams defensively as well.

Fall Back on Tournament Experience

Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Last season, Texas lost to the Xavier Musketeers, 86–80, in the First Four. This led to Longhorns head coach Rodney Terry being fired. However, they hired Xavier's head coach, Sean Miller, in the offseason, who brought Swain with him to Austin, Texas.

Swain has six NCAA Tournament appearances with Xavier and seven with the Arizona Wildcats, including eight trips to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. This postseason experience will be critical for the team as they navigate an uphill battle in March Madness.

Mark brings plenty of experience, with 168 career games and multiple postseason trips with Houston, as does Heide with Purdue and 100+ career games. Veterans on Texas’s roster, like Chendall Weaver, have also made multiple postseason appearances.

NC State is led by another veteran head coach, Will Wade, but the Longhorns’ tenured roster could be an advantage in a high-pressure environment like the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.