Why the Texas Longhorns Will Now Be Sweating on Selection Sunday

On a night when Texas needed a win to steady itself before Selection Sunday, the Longhorns instead were knocked out of the SEC Tournament with a 76-66 first-round loss to Ole Miss.

Head coach Sean Miller and the Longhorns were already on the bubble before the SEC Tournament began, but their early exit has pushed Texas firmly into wait-and-see mode.

Texas' loss also capped a rough closing stretch in which the Longhorns dropped of their final six games. That kind of momentum matters to the selection committee. If Miller's squad had taken care of business against either Ole Miss or Oklahoma, Texas may not be on the very edge of the bubble.

A Season Defined by Inconsistency

Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain drives to the basket past Mississippi Rebels forward Malik Dia during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Texas' season was up and down from the very start. Some nights, the Longhorns looked like a team that could compete with any program in the country, and other nights they struggled to keep pace with their opponents for 40 minutes.

Midway through their conference schedule, the Longhorns put together a five-game win streak that steadied their NCAA Tournament projection. That run was built on earlier wins over No. 15 Alabama, No. 22 Vanderbilt, and Georgia — three teams that have already locked in their spots for March Madness.

As previously mentioned, the Longhorns couldn't carry any of their midseason momentum going down the stretch, dropping five of their last six games. What made that stretch even tougher was that Texas had already beaten three of those opponents (Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss) earlier in the year.

The problem for Texas isn't just the losses — it's the lack of trust the team has built over the course of the season. The committee has seen the highs, but they've also seen how quickly things can swing the other way. That makes the Longhorns one of the tougher bubble teams to evaluate.

The Bubble Field Around Them

Mar 11, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers guard Kevin Overton (1) drives to the basket against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Texas entered Wednesday in the "Last Four Byes" category, but their recent loss likely drops them into the "Last Four In" — and possibly even lower. The Longhorns are currently grouped with N.C. State, UCF, and Santa Clara. UCF and N.C. State both won their first conference tournament games, meaning that they've likely secured their spots in March Madness.

Auburn, New Mexico, and San Diego State are also programs to watch over the next 48 hours. The Tigers' win over Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament only strengthens their case for an NCAA Tournament bid, even with a 17-15 record.

Because the Longhorns ended SEC conference play with a record above .500, there's reason to believe they'll be tougher for the committee to move down the board. That being said, they may need some help to make sure they stay firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation.