Longhorns Country

Texas Longhorns 2026 Playoff Fate Prediction Revealed

The Longhorns are expected to make return to College Football Playoff according to the way-too-early playoff projection
Carter Long|
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning keeps the ball and runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning keeps the ball and runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

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Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns have been generating buzz all offseason.

After finishing last year 11-3 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2022, head coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff went all-in on 2026, pairing returning quarterback Arch Manning with a top-flight portal and high school class.

With the season still a ways away, people are starting project what next year's playoffs could look like, and Texas often finds itself near the top. On3, for example, recently put the Longhorns in the top five.

On3's Brett McMurphy ranks Texas No. 5 in 'Way-Too-Early' Playoff Projection

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian
Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian claps during warmups before the game against the Kentucky Wildcats | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Brett McMurphy of On3 recently released his way-too-early playoff projection for 2026 via X.

Take a look:

In McMurphy's projection, the Longhorns would play fellow member of the University of Texas-system, the UTSA Road Runners.

McMurphy did not project who would win these games in his post, only who would play them. While the Longhorns have beat the Road Runners in both of the matches they have played, it is noteworthy that Texas baseball was bounced from the postseason by UTSA in 2025.

If Texas football is able to claim revenge for their baseball contemporaries, McMurphy projects they would then face-off with 2025 runner-up Miami. The Hurricanes had a big offseason of their own, bringing in the No. 4 transfer portal class, highlighted by former Duke quarterback and wide receiver duo Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate.

While McMurphy stopped short of predicting individual winners and losers, he did predict a champion: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The Fighting Irish also have a top-10 recruiting class, one which they are pairing with current heisman-favorite and returning quarterback CJ Carr. They also have a talented roster highlighted by 2025 Unanimous All-American cornerback Leonard Moore.

Notre Dame finished 8-0 after starting 0-2 last season. They are only a season removed from making the National Championship.

How Can Texas Achieve This?

Texas Longhorns wide receiver
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Cam Coleman celebrates after scoring a touchdown as a member of the Auburn Tigers | John Reed-Imagn Images

Texas is primed for a playoff push in 2026.

The Longhorns have created a formula for an explosive offense by combining Sarkisian and Manning with the transfer portal additions of Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.

They are also slated to have a havoc-wreaking defense with edge rusher Colin Simmons and new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.

The only things standing in their way are entropy and themselves.

Texas came in to last season with similarly high expectations but faltered out of the gate. If they have learned from that experience and can come out with a statement victory against the Ohio State Buckeyes in week two, they could do even better than McMurphy's projection.

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Carter Long
CARTER LONG

Carter Long is a sophomore Journalism and Sports Media student at the University of Texas at Austin. He is also a general sports reporter for the Daily Texan on the baseball beat. Long is from Houston and supports everything H-town.

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