Texas RB Bijan Robinson Is A First-Round Talent, But Where Will He Land?
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Most bigwigs would tell you that drafting a running back in the first round of any draft would be a costly mistake.
There's always a prospect or two who can bend the rule in their favor. Najee Harris did it in 2021 coming out of Alabama when drafted 24th by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Josh Jacobs fit the bill in 2019, coming from the Crimson Tide backfield when selected No. 24 overall by the now-Las Vegas Raiders. Saquon Barkley, perhaps the most sought-after running back prospect in the past decade, didn't make it past the New York Giants at No. 2 in 2018.
Texas Longhorns star Bijan Robinson is one of those "break the rule" prospects. His hype outweighs both Jacobs and Harris. So does his production during his three seasons on the Forty Acres. And while landing in the Houston Texans' lap at No. 2 seems far-fetch, Robinson mirrors Barkley in terms of upside and production closer than most would suggest.
And it's why teams will covet him with a Day 1 selection. Rules are meant to be broken for the right player. Robinson is that player and then some.
Robinson, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, is considered the top running back prospect in the 2023 class. His size, speed, physicality, and pass-catching skills have him listed as a consensus top 20 player. Some consider him top 10 thanks to his "can't-miss" prowess in space. Others would list him based on potential as a top-five option.
Robinson dominated the Big 12 in back-to-back seasons, surpassing 1,000 yards in both 2021 and 2022. He averaged 5.8 yards per run as a sophomore that tried its darndest to be multi-dimensional with Casey Thompson under center. A year later and a year wiser, Robinson's numbers improved.
He averaged 6.1 yards per run on 63 more carries. He totaled nearly 1,600 yards on the ground and almost surpassed 2,000 yards from the line of scrimmage. And his 20 total touchdowns? That ranked second among all FBS players, trailing only Pitt's Israel Abanikanda.
Robinson is an offensive coordinator's dream. Everyone saw first-hand what the Tempe, Ariz. product could do on the ground, but he's much more than a one-trick pony. Robinson improved in pass protection as a blocker each season, eliminating pressures on Thompson, Hudson Card, and Quinn Ewers.
That's one facet of his game in terms of passing. As a receiver, Robinson found success, too. In 2021, he finished second in receptions (26) and third in yards (295). Last fall, he averaged 11.7 yards per catch, though his numbers diminished thanks to the emergence of tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders and a healthy Jordan Whittington in the slot.
It would be foolish to think that Robinson hears his name called somewhere in the top five on Apr. 27. The Chicago Bears could need running back help if David Montgomery were to test free agency, but the franchise needs cornerstones at every position besides quarterback. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both set on fixing the quarterback position. The Arizona Cardinals have James Conner, while the Seattle Seahawks are banking on rookie Kenneth Walker's upside entering 2023.
The Atlanta Falcons were linked to Robinson before the start of the regular season, but since have found their leading man in fourth-round pick Ty Allgeier. And while the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers could be in the market for a feature back due to free agency, other needs must be met first.
Mock drafts will become more relevant when the official first-round order is set following the Super Bowl on Feb. 12. Everything is a guessing game until then, but that has yet to stop mocks from listing Robinson as a top-20 selection.
The Draft Network still believes Atlanta could fortify its backfield with Robinson at No. 8. Sports Illustrated gave the Eagles a new lead back to replace impending free agent Miles Sanders at No. 10. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus sent Robinson to the Motor City with pick No. 18 thanks to a stout offensive line.
Everything now remains a mystery. A need for one team could change thanks to free agency. Draft boards are far from set in stone entering the early stages of the scouting process. General managers and coaching staffs will have a better indication of what glaring needs must be addressed following trips to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., and the combine in Indianapolis.
Make no mistake. Robinson's status as the top running back won't change barring an injury from now until draft night. His ability to create mismatches at all three phases of the field is second to none compared to others at his position.
Since 2010, 19 running backs have heard their name called on Day 1 of the draft. Expect that number to expand to 20 when Robinson comes off the board on a Thursday night in Cleveland come late April.
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