What If Texas Hired Sonny Dykes Before TCU Came Calling?
What if? That's a phrase that's surrounded the Texas Longhorns for nearly a decade.
What if the boosters remained patient with Mack Brown and allotted him another season with new athletic director Steve Patterson in 2014?
What if Texas AD Chris Del Conte gave Tom Herman another season on the Forty Acres after finishing 7-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Colorado in a COVID-19 year?
What if Steve Sarkisian wasn't working under Nick Saban at Alabama, known for its ability to punch out NFL talent and capable college coaches?
What if Sarkisian had been calling plays at South Carolina? At NC State? At any non-blue blood program that doesn't make headlines when it does its job and wins? Would he have been Del Conte's first choice after a "mixed" tenure of Herman that featured four bowl wins and three top-25 finishes?
Here's the new "what if" that currently surrounds Austin entering the offseason. What Del Conte went with his gut over his program's brand and made the outside hire?
That could have been TCU's Sonny Dykes, who now will be playing for a national title against No. 1 Georgia at SoFi Stadium Monday night following a 51-45 win over No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
This wasn't a ramp-up from the Horned Frogs, either. It's Year 1 of Dykes calling the shots in Fort Worth after a two-decade tenure from Gary Patterson, who coincidentally joined Texas last offseason as a defensive assistant to Sarkisian.
TCU has a student population that hovers around 10,000 undergraduates. Texas quadruples that at over 40,000. The Longhorns and their boosters have been pushing for prospects thanks to their NIL collective. Texas Christian University is a private institution that provides more funds for academics rather than athletics.
There's tradition at Texas. The same goes for Texas A&M. Boosters and alumni are more than happy to hand over blank checks for the promise of a better product, and the hope that a few extra dollars will be enough to guarantee a place in the College Football Playoff.
The Aggies finished 5-7 one year after nabbing the best recruiting class in the history of the sport. Texas will likely finish unranked for a second consecutive season under Sarkisian after losing to No. 12 Washington in Alamo Bowl last month.
And TCU? It's the first program from the Lone Star State to make the College Football Playoff.
Money buys players. It doesn't buy wins. Consistency and stability is the key to grabbing the latter, and TCU has that after what could only be described as a Cinderella season that's stuck at 11:59 p.m.
Del Conte could've persuaded Dykes to join him in Austin. It nearly happened. According to the Austin American-Statesman, Dykes was the No. 1 candidate on the athletic director's wish list following Herman's firing two years ago to the date.
In the end, nothing flourished. Del Conte has since refuted the claim, stating that the conversations were nothing more than a "vetting process" in the search for Herman's replacement. Multiple boosters have also said that from the start that Sark was the primary target.
There certainly was a reasonable infatuation with Sarkisian. He won a national title as Pete Carroll's offensive coordinator at USC in 2004. He brought an uptick of success to Washington during his five seasons in Seattle, finishing above .500 four times.
And Alabama? The results speak for themselves. Two years of averaging over 500 yards of offense and 48 points per game were enough of a sales pitch for boosters to be all-in on Sarkisian's potential.
Dykes, the son of former Texas assistant and legendary Texas Tech coach Spike Dykes, had been fired by Cal after going 19-30 in four years. He was finding success after three years at SMU, but results in the American Conference aren't likely to meet the "Texas standard" among those who pay the bills.
Sonny Dykes' offensive concept was derived from the teachings of Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. The Air Raid had become a rising trend across the country thanks to an idea that was born on the wheat fields in Iowa at a Division III college.
Was that not the style that captivated Del Conte's and the bigwigs' hearts? Or was it his laid-back demeanor that fit more of the west coast persona instead of the nitty-gritty personality in a state whose slogan reads "Don't Mess With Texas."
One year into an entirely new system, the Horned Frogs are winning. They finished third nationally in scoring, averaging over 41 points per game The defense kicked the four-man rush approach — a staple under Patterson — to the wayside in favor of a 3-3-5 look under new coordinator Joe Gillespie.
Max Duggan, who was demoted to backup at the start of the year, finished as the Heisman runner-up. Quentin Johnston, who initially committed to Texas, is now projected to be one of the first receivers taken in April's draft. And the run game flourished in an offense that's predicated on trusting the pass as Kendre Miller rushed for nearly 1,400 yards and scored 17 touchdowns.
Imagine an up-tempo offense with Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson in the backfield. Imagine a quarterback with receivers such as Jordan Whittington, Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavion Sanders at his disposal.
Maybe Sarkisian is the right guy. He landed Quinn Ewers via the transfer portal last offseason, who left fans wanting more after a promising outing against the Huskies in San Antonio. Texas will also finish with a top-five recruiting class in 2023 that features prospects like linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., receiver Johntay Cook, running back Cedric Baxter Jr. and quarterback Arch Manning.
Manning is the key. He's garnered comparisons to his Hall of Fame uncle, Peyton, along with other "generational" prospects like Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck. Manning, who will be enrolled for the spring semester, also committed to Sarkisian, not Texas.
Maybe the pride of New Orleans lands at the family's alma mater Ole Miss? Perhaps he follows Peyton Manning to Knoxville, or creates his own legacy elsewhere. Texas, however likely isn't in play without Sark.
The Longhorns might need more time to get back to the level of play that Brown implemented during the 2000s. Maybe this recruiting class is the "piece de resistance" that sends Texas back to Arlington and to the postseason next New Year's Eve. Expectations are high in Austin entering 2023, and 8-4 seasons won't cut it much longer.
Only one program has seen a similar turnaround such as TCU in the sport's modern era. Gene Chizik and Gus Malzhan came close at Auburn twice in the 2010s. Chizik won a national title in his second season, but it required a Heisman Trophy quarterback and future No. 1 pick to transfer in from Blinn College in Bryan to make it happen.
Malzhan went to the national championship in his first year back on The Plains in 2013, but he also was essential in landing most of the players on the roster while serving as the Tigers' offensive coordinator under Chizik. A new head coach. The same offensive playbook.
Everything changed when Dykes touched down via helicopter at Hell's Half Acre on a windy December evening. A new offensive system. A new defensive formation. A new standard internally for the program after less than a year.
TCU has arrived at the contender's table, even if it can't finish the year with a title in one hand and the nation's respect in the other. Texas is still trying to finish the race and has made three pit stops since 2014 for a switch behind the metaphoric wheel.
Another year has passed and Texas has been mucked by mediocrity.
Another year where the "what ifs" continue to pile up.
You can follow Cole Thompson on Twitter @MrColeThompson
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