UCF's Upset Chances: Three Ways Knights Can Beat UCLA
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The time has nearly arrived for the UCF Knights to tip off in their first NCAA Tournament game in seven years.
The 7-seed UCLA Bruins are the odds-on favorites in this matchup according to oddsmakers, but as everyone who has watched March Madness knows, any game can end in an upset.
So, here are three ways the Knights can pull off such an upset against the Bruins:
1. Crash the Offensive Glass
Out of 361 Division 1 teams, UCLA ranks 323rd in defensive rebounds per game and 264th in offensive rebounds per game. The Knights, by comparison, are 151st in defensive rebounds per game and 59th in offensive rebounds per game.
UCF forward Jamichael Stillwell finished third in the Big 12 and 34th in the nation by averaging 3.23 offensive rebounds per game. If he and the rest of the Knights can live up to this kind of production at the glass and convert them into second-chance points, then they'll at least have one statistical category they can dominate in this game.
2. Get Offensive Production From the Bench
The Bruins are also ranked outside the Top 300 in the nation when it comes to bench points per game, which presents another spot where the Knights could gain an advantage.
However, the UCF bench, spearheaded by guards Chris Johnson and Carmelo Pacheco and forward Devan Cambridge, has had a rough go of it recently, with the last time it scored more points than its opponent being the Utah game on Feb. 21.
Whether they have to go against a Bruins bench that has had trouble scoring this season or facing off against a core Bruins lineup that does not require many subs, the production of the Knights' bench can be the difference between them falling into a hole and staying within striking distance; and in March, staying within striking distance can sometimes be all a team needs.
3. Find the Three Again
If there is one thing UCLA is good at, it's shooting from beyond the arc, particularly with the selection of those shots. Despite ranking 263rd in the nation in three-point attempts per game, the Bruins are 18th in the nation in three-point percentage.
The Knights have also hung their hats on three pointers this season, ranking 53rd in the nation in three-point percentage while ranking 232nd in three-point attempts per game. However, they have been struggling with those types of shots lately, with their last three games being three of the four times this season they shot for under 20% beyond the arc.
UCF was able to overcome such struggles, going against Cincinnati, despite the Bearcats sinking 11 three-pointers, but it had to be done in overtime. Following that, Arizona did not need to lean on the three too much, just enough to get it out to a lead that it could manage the rest of the way despite rally attempts by the Knights.
Whether it's to build its own lead or to stay in contention, UCF finding a groove from three once more could be a big difference-maker between winning and going home.
The Knights tip off against UCLA at 7:25 p.m. on Friday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Catch up on more UCF news below:
Projecting UCF's Full NCAA Tournament Path
UCF Knights March Madness Hub: Schedule, Seed, Opponent and Path to Final Four
Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
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