UCLA vs. Arizona Week 6: Storylines to Watch
UCLA football (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) is scheduled to kick off its Week 6 game against Arizona (0-4, 0-1) on Saturday at 7:30 p.m.
The Bruins have lost two of their last three games, with their rivalry road win over Stanford getting sandwiched by home losses to Fresno State and Arizona State. The Wildcats, although they have yet to win a game, played BYU close to the final whistle and kept it close against then-top-five Oregon as well before their recent bye week.
Heading into the Week 6 matchup, here are the most pressing questions we want to have answered by the final whistle.
Can Charbonnet return to form?
The Bruins' most reliable back hasn't been bad the past few weeks, he just hasn't been his cartoonishly efficient self from the first two games of the season.
Through two weeks, Charbonnet was averaging 111.5 yards per game on 13.1 yards per carry and somehow inserted himself into the Heisman conversation completely out of nowhere. He was finding the end zone, breaking tackles and controlling the offense, all while still being the No. 2 back behind Brittain Brown.
Ever since he started getting more play than Brown, Charbonnet's numbers have fallen off.
Even taking out his six carries for 19 yards against Fresno State – however, he did score two touchdowns in that game – Charbonnet averaged 4.7 yards per carry between the Stanford and Arizona State games. His workload has gone up considerably, averaging 25.5 touches per game in those two contests, so he has still racked up 134.5 scrimmage yards per game in that span.
Since Arizona's defense is allowing roughly 200 rushing yards per game, someone in the UCLA backfield will presumably have a big night. Brown was once again listed as the starter on the weekly two-deep depth chart though, so maybe coach Chip Kelly looks more towards him than Charbonnet.
The reasoning for Charbonnet's decreasing efficiency partially has to do with a return to Earth after such a massive first two games. The rest may have to do with fatigue or offensive line combinations. Whatever the cause was, it will be interesting to see what role Charbonnet plays Saturday and if he can once again be the uber-efficient ball-carrier he was at the start of the year.
Which UCLA defense will we see?
For as bad as the Bruins' defense looks right now, it wasn't all that long ago that people were saying they had turned a corner.
Much like last season, UCLA started off with a few really good performances on that side of the ball. Even if the stats weren't pretty and the opponent still managed to put up points, there was at least a wild energy to the unit that brought a lot of pressure and disruption on nearly every play.
Where they stand now, though, the Bruins are unable to create pressure and they're getting beat badly over the top as well. Even when Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener carved them up on the outside, the UCLA defense was at least forcing fumbles and running hard to the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
Against Arizona State, there was poor tackling, bad angles and just overall disarray for the Bruins on defense.
In 2020, the defense consistently trended downwards nearly every week until the end of the season, not once seeing a resurgence or bounce back performance. Things just somehow got worse from game to game.
It's looking very similar in 2021, and if UCLA wants any shot at turning this slide around, improving even marginally on defense is step No. 1.
What combination will work on the O-line?
Center Sam Marrazzo's return from injury was short lived, meaning it's back to the drawing board for Kelly and offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Justin Frye.
Sean Rhyan, Paul Grattan and Alec Anderson are all locked in at left tackle, left guard and right tackle, respectively. Even though Rhyan had one of the worst games of his UCLA career against Arizona State, he's still the most talented guy up front and should get back to his normal self sooner rather than later.
Center and right guard are where the real questions lie.
The Bruins ran the ball and protected quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson very well through two weeks when Jon Gaines II was at center and Atonio Mafi was at right guard with Duke Clemens splitting time with him there too. Marrazzo's return moved Gaines back to his natural right guard position, but when Marrazzo got injured again, it was a return to the same rotating group on the interior.
However, Kelly and Frye put Clemens in at center and left Gaines at right guard for the Arizona State game. Gaines is probably a better right guard than he is a center, and Clemens could be doing a great job of calling things out at center, but the combination just did not work against the Sun Devils.
Taking out the Fresno State game, in which UCLA went far more pass-heavy than usual, they probably had their worst rushing game of the year against Arizona State with just 4.3 yards per carry – compare that to over 5.2 yards per carry in each of the first two games. The pass protection also saw a major dip, as Thompson-Robinson took more hits than he had all season.
Maybe things bounce back with Clemens staying at center, or maybe it will serve as the final straw for Kelly to go back to Gaines and Mafi.
Will Kelly keep his job?
This question can really be replaced with "Will the Bruins lose?" but they essentially serve the same function.
If UCLA loses to winless Arizona, Kelly's time in Westwood will be done. He may not get fired Sunday morning, or even before the Washington game next week, but his odds of coming back to coach the team in 2022 would dwindle close to 0%.
The Bruins were 3-2 through five games last year, and they finished 3-4. Say this year's team falls to 3-3 by losing to the Wildcats, and then goes and plays a Washington squad that is objectively better than Arizona – they'd more than likely return home for the Oregon game 3-4 yet again.
There would be no growth on display from a year ago, when UCLA was close but couldn't put it together and wound up with another losing record. The 2021 Bruins, if they were to lose to the Wildcats this weekend, would prove to be the same team they were 365 days ago, probably even worse.
A loss to Arizona is highly unlikely, but not completely out of the question.
It isn't as if a win means Kelly is safe and a loss means he's done. Instead, a win just keeps him afloat, exactly where he was before the game, while a loss would be a bad enough stain to start pushing him out the door as soon as possible.
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