2 Reactions to Joe Lunardi's Bracketology UNC Projection

North Carolina has had a few ups and downs as of late, to say the least. They started this week off on a positive note, defeating Notre Dame and breaking its two-game losing streak. This win put them over .500 in conference play, and they have a real chance to gain serious momentum with a win over No. 14-ranked Virginia today.

During this low period for UNC, one thing has remained the same, and that is their NCAA Tournament chances. At the end of the day, going dancing in March is what every player wants to do.

Let’s take a look at UNC’s tournament projection according to Joe Lunardi.

UNC trending up

Joe Lunardi currently has the Tar Heels as a sixth seed, which is the highest seed they have been since 2026 started. After a rough start to the new year, a sixth seed has to be a sigh of relief for the program and fan base.

UNC is definitely not out of the clear, though; they have a lot of important games left that remain. Lunardi has today’s matchup between the Tar Heels and the Cavaliers as a game to watch. His quote about the game should make UNC fans a little worried.

“The surprise here is that North Carolina needs the win so much more than Virginia to hold steady,” said Lunardi.

The moral of the story is that UNC has to beat UVA to stay at a comfortable seeding in the tournament.

UNC versus UVA is a must-win

Yes, it would be a huge win for the Tar Heels if they knocked off UVA on the road, but there would be more room for error toward the end of the season. The reason fans were so worried about the Tar Heels’ slow start in conference play is how brutal their backend of the schedule is.

As it stands right now, UNC has seven teams left on its schedule that could make the tournament. Those teams include Louisville, Clemson, and then they play Duke twice. So, beating UVA will absolutely help them right now, but it will also help them late in the season.

The Tar Heels seem to be trending up after their dominant win, but it was over a mediocre Fighting Irish team. UNC will have to put together a string of strong games, but they could be trending in the right direction at the right time.

Check back here every week for an update on UNC’s projection in the NCAA Tournament.

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