North Carolina Makes Move in Latest Bracketology

This week was not the best for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who dropped to 13-2 after losing to the SMU Mustangs 97-83 on Saturday at the Moody Coliseum. The Tar Heels' record was not the only thing that took a hit this week. North Carolina dropped five spots to No. 17 in the latest AP Poll college basketball rankings, which were released on Monday.

The fashion in which the Tar Heels lost to the Mustangs left an imprint on many evaluators' minds, leading to North Carolina's considerable slip in the rankings. In addition to falling in the rankings, the Tar Heels also fell in ESPN's Bracketologist Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, which was revealed on Tuesday.

Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis yells to his team during the game between the Mustangs and the Tar Heels at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

After climbing to the four-seed line, Lunardi had North Carolina as a five seed in the South Region. It is not the end of the world, but the Tar Heels were potentially a win or two away from establishing themselves as a three seed.

With that being said, let's take a look at North Carolina's position in in the latest hypothetical bracket released by one of the most accurate bracket analysts.

Takeaways from the Tar Heels Positioning in Latest Bracket Projection

When assessing North Carolina's latest spot in these predictions, the main thing that stands out is who the Tar Heels would play in the second round, assuming the higher seeds win. North Carolina would be posed up against the Michigan State Spartans, who also slipped in the latest projections (from a three to a four seed).

The Michigan State Spartans compete against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Fort Myers Tip-Off Beach Division game at Suncoast Credit Union Arena on Fort Myers, Fla., on Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025. | Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A second-round matchup featuring these two programs would be compelling especially since they played each other in the Fort Meyers Tip-Off on Thanksgiving Day. In that matchup, the Spartans' experience and depth exposed the Tar, specifically in the second half when Michigan State orchestrated a 21-8 run in the final nine minutes of the game.

The Spartans would run away with a 74-58 win over the Tar Heels. However, North Carolina's depth was not as pronounced, and Seth Trimble was not available. Those two factors could affect the result of this hypothetical matchup.

davi — Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs guard Boopie Miller (2) shakes hands with North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis after the Mustangs defeat the North Carolina Tar Heels at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

In terms of the rest of the region, Iowa State (1) and Duke (2) are most intimidating teams, but other than, this is region is filled with once-promising units who have struggled in recent weeks. Florida (6) and Kentucky (9) have been two of the most disappointing teams this season. Both programs opened the season as potential title contenders, but depth and lack of defense has exposed both.

Although slipping to a five seed is disappointing, North Carolina's draw in the latest version of this exercise would not be the worst outcome.

Please follow us on X when you click right HERE! Please make sure you follow us today on our Facebook page when you click right HERE!

Never again miss one major story related to your beloved Tar Heels when you sign up for our 100% FREE newsletter that comes straight to your email with the latest news. SIGN UP HERE NOW