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Predicting North Carolina’s Lineup Production Against Virginia

The Tar Heels will look to build off of Wednesday night with another strong outing on Saturday.
Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) and forward Caleb Wilson (8) slap hands during the second half against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) and forward Caleb Wilson (8) slap hands during the second half against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

It has been an up-and-down start to conference for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 3-3 against ACC opposition. Saturday will be another major test, as the Tar Heels head on the road to take on the 14th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers, who are 5-1 in ACC play. If North Carolina wants to be taken seriously, it has to at least show some resemblance of a backbone when playing in a hostile environment.

A fast start is required, as the Cavaliers average 84 points per game while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three-point range.

All that being said, here are predictions for the Tar Heels' starting lineup, which is a reflection of who we think Hubert Davis will roll out in the first unit. Based on recent games, the Tar Heels' starting lineup is never fully known.

Caleb Wilson

Stat line prediction: 21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals

Jan 21, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Everything that has been said about Wilson's production and abilities is a rinse-and-repeat process, as the freshman forward has been elite throughout the season. The former five-star recruit took matters into his own hands-on Wednesday, imposing his will against Notre Dame from the get-go.

There was an extra sense of urgency, and it seemed that Wilson had taken the public criticism pertaining to the team's struggles, personally. He played angry and aggressive, which carried over to the rest of the team as the game progressed.

Wilson will need to be that and more against Virginia. The 6-foot-9, 216-pound forward will produce another strong performance.

Henri Veesaar

Stat line prediction: 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 block

Jan 21, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The recent two-game skid also raised Veesaar's energy on Wednesday, as the Arizona transfer took over the game to start the second half. North Carolina implemented a three-guard lineup, which opened up more space within the perimeter for Veesaar.

Not sure if the Tar Heels go with the same starting lineup, but regardless, Veesaar will continue to dominate paint touches near the basket. His ability to stretch the floor and shoot consistently from beyond the arc should be apparent in this contest.

Seth Trimble

Stat line prediction: 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis (right) talks with guard Seth Trimble (7) during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

In a game of this magnitude, Trimble needs to step up in a noticeable way. The senior guard has not been aggressive in recent outings and that was evident against the Fighting Irish. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound guard totaled five points, three rebounds, and one assist.

Foul trouble contributed to that underwhelming output, as Trimble played 19 minutes after picking up three quick fouls.

Derek Dixon

Stat line prediction: 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists

Jan 21, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis with guard Derek Dixon (3) in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Dixon has started the last two games, averaging 12.5 points while shooting 45 percent from the field and 53.8 percent from beyond the arc.

The freshman guard has earned another start, and he will be X-factor in this game against a formidable defense.

Jarin Stevenson

Stat line prediction: 7 points and 4 rebounds

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jarin Stevenson (left) goes through a pregame routine with guard Elijah Davis (6) before the game against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

With Virginia's length, Davis could feel inclined to make a change to the starting lineup for the third consecutive game and elevate Stevenson off the bench.

The Alabama transfer will not produce lofty numbers, but his presence on defense and on the glass is where his presence will be noticed.

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Logan Lazarczyk
LOGAN LAZARCZYK

Logan Lazarczyk is a graduate of the University of Missouri-Kansas City, where he earned a Bachelor of Arts in Communication Studies with an emphasis in Journalism. He is our UNC Tar Heels Beat Reporter. Logan joined our team with extensive experience, having previously written and worked for media entities such as USA Today and Union Broadcasting.