Staff Predictions: UNC, Duke Battle It Out for Victory Bell

North Carolina (4-6, 2-4 ACC) will host Duke (5-5, 4-2 ACC) at Kenan Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. The game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.

North Carolina is coming off a 28-12 loss at Wake Forest on Saturday, snapping a two-game winning streak. Duke, meanwhile, fell at home to Virginia, 34-17, a defeat that all but eliminated the Blue Devils from ACC Championship Game contention.

North Carolina leads the all-time series 65-41-4, but Duke won last year's matchup, 21-20, after scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the win. The victory gave the Blue Devils possession of the Victory Bell for the first time since 2019.

Here are our predictions for today’s game.

Grant Chachere: Duke 35-7

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz watches from the sideline as they take on the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

North Carolina made significant strides on both sides of the ball after the bye week. However, things have changed in recent weeks.

The offense reverted to its old ways against Stanford, and against Wake Forest last week, the Tar Heels reached the 30-yard line five times but gained only four yards and did not score a touchdown. Gio Lopez has improved, but not enough to win the Tar Heels games, especially critical ones like this game.

Additionally, the defense has struggled. Since the fourth quarter against Stanford on Nov. 8, North Carolina has surrendered 40 points over five quarters. The Tar Heels also allowed 415 yards in their loss to Wake Forest on Nov. 15, including 223 rushing yards — the most they have given up since their season-opening loss to TCU on Sept. 1.

Given the number of broken coverages against Wake Forest last week, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah could have a big day against the North Carolina defense. Bill Belichick said this will be the best quarterback the Tar Heels face this season, and based on Mensah’s numbers, that could very well be true.

I expect the Blue Devils to retain the Victory Bell and win this game by at least three touchdowns.

Jeremiah Artacho: Duke, 27-14

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

North Carolina has made progress to get in the position it's in today, but the Tar Heels have failed to make any significant strides on the offensive end. UNC's defense has been the focal point as to why it is at a 4-6 record, instead of perhaps 2-8. Head coach Bill Belichick has yet to find the footing needed for his offense, as quarterback Gio Lopez has not exactly been the version he displayed while at South Alabama last season.

As far as Duke is concerned, head coach Manny Diaz has a talented team on his hands — one that has an offense that is capable of putting up points, courtesy of quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Nate Sheppard, who are logging in big-time stats. All things considered, this is why I believe that Duke will reclaim the Victory Bell in Chapel Hill, and defeat UNC, 27-14.

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