UNC Falling Behind With Five-Star Point Guard

It’s been a solid 2026 recruiting cycle for UNC and head coach Hubert Davis so far. They started with a bang, landing and signing Maximo Adams, a four-star small forward from California, and they are actively targeting several more elite prospects.

One of those prospects is a five-star point guard, but one national recruiting analyst believes that the Tar Heels are falling behind in his recruitment, putting UNC in danger of losing their top target of the cycle.

Tar Heels Losing Ground on Five-Star Guard

UNC, UNC Basketball — North Carolina players huddling up during a stoppage in play; Oct. 29, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Throughout his recruitment, UNC has been targeting Dylan Mingo, a five-star point guard from Long Island Lutheran High School in Farmingdale, New York.

Mingo has a mutual interest in the Tar Heels, naming them as one of his final four schools alongside Baylor, Washington, and Penn State on Nov 25. He also took an official visit to Chapel Hill in November.

While all of Mingo’s final four schools have a strong chance to win his recruitment, it has seemed like the Tar Heels have had the upper hand for the past few months. However, Rivals’ senior national basketball recruiting analyst Jamie Shaw believes that Penn State has now taken over as the favorite to land the five-star point guard.

Shaw explained that with Kayden, Dylan’s brother at Penn State, the Mingo family has a lot of trust in the program. He predicted that Mingo would commit to the Nittany Lions, with a 40% confidence level.

Dec 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Luka Bogavac (44) reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

“His brother, Kayden Mingo, is currently having a successful freshman campaign at Penn State,” Shaw wrote. “Speaking with sources around the recruitment, there is a lot of familiarity with Mingo and the Penn State staff, and a lot of trust with the family.”

While Shaw currently believes that Mingo’s recruitment is Penn State’s to lose, he did say that both Baylor and North Carolina are very much in the mix. He also mentioned that he expects the young point guard to make a decision in the coming weeks.

“Sources have told me that Baylor, where former high school teammate VJ Edgecombe went and was then a Lottery Pick, has carried intrigue, and that UNC continues to be in the mix,” Shaw wrote. “I am told that this one should be done in the next couple of weeks.”

While Shaw’s prediction should concern UNC fans about their chances of landing Mingo, it’s not a certainty. The Tar Heels remain very much in the running for the five-star, and if they continue to push for him over the next few weeks, they’ll have a real shot at securing his commitment.

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