Predicting UNC's Next First-Round NBA Draft Pick

One player has his sights on continuing the trend of first-round-drafted Tar Heels.

Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; A view of the North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the shorts of forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Caleb Wilson is just the ninth freshman to be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft out of North Carolina.

Overall, he’s the 56th Tar Heel to hear his name called on night one of the draft. For a program with a standard as high as North Carolina's, the expectation is that the list should continue to grow.

Dec 6, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; A general view of the logo on the court prior to the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Western Carolina Catamounts at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images | Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images

With so many new faces coming into Chapel Hill next season, it means there are several candidates to continue the trend of first-round selections. One Tar Heel in particular has obviously set that as the bar, and any other outcome after next season may be labeled as a failure.

Matt Able in the First Round?

Matt Able’s storyline throughout the offseason has been nothing short of uncertain. Originally, he committed to North Carolina after entering the transfer portal but remained committed to testing the NBA Draft waters. 

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) brings the ball up the court in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Able was even invited and participated in the 2026 NBA Draft Combine, where he put on an excellent showing, and many believed he would enter the NBA Draft. 

As it turns out, Able was not satisfied with his draft stock at the time and decided to return to college basketball and play for North Carolina. The fact that he transferred from an in-state rival, NC State, makes his transfer that much sweeter.

What a Productive Season Can Do for Able

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) and Virginia Cavaliers forward Devin Tillis (11) fight for the ball in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

With Able set to play his first and likely only season in Chapel Hill, it's clear that his goal is to be the next Tar Heel to be selected in the first round of the draft. Before his return, Able's mocked landing range was anything but consensus. While most of his projections had him in the second round, he varied anywhere between the back half and the top of day two.

With the tools at his disposal this upcoming season, Able can certainly elevate his draft stock into the first round and make his career pit stop in Chapel Hill a much-needed stepping stone.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) scores as Virginia Cavaliers forward Devin Tillis (11) defends in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Given North Carolina's roster, there are many other candidates to see the first round as well. Virtually everyone in the starting lineup could make a case with a productive season at North Carolina.

Able, however, has the clearest path to the draft, as he has already been in front of NBA scouts and gone through the process. A solid season at North Carolina should be more than enough to propel him into those first-round conversations on a consistent basis.