USC men's basketball: What went wrong in NCAA Tournament loss to Michigan State

Whether it's a deep run in the NCAA Tournament or a Pac-12 regular season or conference championship, it's time for USC to take the next step

COLUMBUS, Ohio — For the second year in a row, the USC men's basketball team fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. On Friday in Columbus, the Trojans' struggled on offense in the second half and lost to Michigan State 72-62 in a No. 10 vs. No. 7 seed matchup.

WHAT WENT WRONG AGAINST THE SPARTANS?

The biggest reason USC struggled against Michigan State, especially on offense, was because Boogie Ellis had a rough day. Michigan State defended USC's leading scorer brilliantly holding Ellis to six points on 3-of-12 shooting. Ellis did not hit a three-pointer in the game going 0-for-3.

"I let my teammates down today," Ellis said. "I didn't make shots. They made things tough for me. Their team defense was tough."

Ellis came into the game scoring 18 points per game. He'd scored 24.7% of USC's points on the year prior to Friday. The Trojans understandably couldn't overcome such a big part of their offense going cold. 

Outside of Josh Morgan, who went 7-of-9, USC's other players shot 35% from the field. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo chose to really focus on defending USC's guards, the players who were capable of beating the Spartans on offense, and the plan worked.

On defense, USC was desperate to not let Michigan State hit three-pointers because the Spartans are one of the best long-range shooting teams in the country. The Trojans' three-point shooting defense was solid, but USC overpursued and Michigan State shot 52.5% on two-pointers. 

Combine MSU's two-point shooting numbers with USC's guards not scoring at an efficient rate, and it adds up to a ten-point loss.

LOOKING TO NEXT SEASON

With the transfer portal, college basketball teams can look a lot different from year to year. The Trojans will lose Ellis and Peterson, but outside of those two, USC has a good amount of impact players who should return to the team. 

Five-star freshman point guard Isaiah Collier (more on him later) will slide into Ellis' role as USC's starting point guard next season. We expect Kobe Johnson to start at shooting guard, Reese Dixon-Waters and Tre White to start in combo guard roles and then either Vince Iwuchukwu or Josh Morgan to start at center. That lineup may need to be adjusted against a team like Arizona, who really hurt USC by starting two bigs this year, but it's undoubtedly a very talented group.

In the limited minutes Iwuchukwu and Morgan were on the floor together this season, USC did not play well. Iwuchukwu missed the majority of the year with a heart issue and then a back injury, so it's not out of the question for him to get healthy and then end up starting with Morgan after the two get more comfortable playing together in the offseason. We view Iwuchukwu as USC's x-factor. If he stays healthy and has a good offseason, he could be one of the Pac-12's top players next year. Obviously his ability to stay on the court, or lack thereof, is concerning though.  

True freshman big man Arrinten Page, Collier's high school teammate, could really help USC if he emerges as a reliable option at power forward. Center Kijani Wright improved as the year went on for USC and Harrison Hornery, another big, played sparingly. If Iwuchukwu had been healthy, Wright would not have played as much. Hornery could potentially fill some of the void left by Peterson because he's a solid shooter, but it's unclear exactly how he'll fit into next year's team. The trio of Wright, Hornery and Iaroslav Niagu could struggle to see the floor.

BACK LOG AT GUARD

While it's certainly possible there could be a transfer portal loss in the front court, it's more likely there will be one or two in the backcourt. As currently constituted, USC is going to have too many guards next season.

Collier, Johnson, White, Dixon-Waters and freshman Silas Demary are all roster locks barring something unforeseen happening. That leaves Malik Thomas and Oziyah Sellers potentially on the outside looking in. USC may also add Bronny James from the high school ranks, which would contribute even more to the backup at guard. 

So the unknowns for next year are Wright, Hornery, Niagu, Thomas and Sellers. Members from this group could certainly carve out important roles next season or they could struggle to see the floor/decide to leave. Time will tell.

NEXT YEAR'S FRESHMAN

Isaiah Collier

Collier is currently the No. 1 ranked player in the 2023 class according to 247Sports and Rivals. On3.com lists Collier as the No. 2 prospect in the country and ESPN has him at No. 3. There's a world where Collier has a stellar season and then leaves for the NBA after one year — he will have the highest ceiling of anyone on USC's roster. As the perfect replacement for Ellis, expectations are understandably very high for the five-star recruit. 

Arrinten Page

Page is a power forward/center. He projects "as a versatile big who should be both a pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop threat," according to 247Sports.com's Director of Scouting Adam Finkelstein. Finkelstein went on to write in his scouting report that "Page has demonstrated an accelerated rate of improvement over the course of the last year, and is young for his class, two variables that suggest his best basketball could still be far in front of him."

The best-case scenario for Page is that he's an impact player in year one at power forward. Even though Peterson played as a guard/forward hybrid last year and Page's game is much different, there is no obvious replacement for Peterson next year and Page could slot in. A strong freshman season from Page would really help the Trojans. 

Silas Demary Jr.

The best-case scenario for Demary is breaking into USC's rotation. Here's some of Finkelstein's scouting report on the four-star prospect:

"Demary is a potential big lead guard in the making. He plays both on and off the ball right now, approaches the game with a scoring mentality, and does not yet create a ton of easy scoring opportunities for his teammates, but also is not especially turnover prone either. He is at his best scoring the ball from the mid-range and in."

As a three-point shooter and defender, Demary is a work in progress.

TRANSFER PORTAL ADDITIONS?

Never say never. While it's unlikely USC adds a transfer or transfers due to having so many returners, the Trojans staff will of course do their due diligence and if adding a player makes sense, they'll do it.  

OVERALL THOUGHTS/EXPECTATIONS ON NEXT SEASON

Whether it's a deep run in the NCAA Tournament or a Pac-12 regular season or conference tournament championship, it's time for USC to take the next step. Next year's Trojans team will certainly be capable of that. 

Head coach Andy Enfield deserves credit for turning USC from a Pac-12 cellar dweller to a team that consistently finishes at the top of the league. The Trojans have made three NCAA Tournaments in a row — the program is solid. Solid won't be good enough next year though as expectations will fairly be higher.

USC should have an AP top 25-level roster. Winning the Pac-12 regular season title isn't out of the question. High hopes from fans are completely deserved. Next year's a big one.