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USC Trojans Most Overrated Team of College Football Playoff Era?

Are the USC Trojans the most overrated program of the College Football Playoff era? As USC coach Lincoln Riley and his team look to reach the postseason, one analyst pinned the Trojans as an underwhelming team since 2014.
Charlie Viehl|
Sep 4, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Clay Helton on the sidelines in the first half of the game against the San Jose State Spartans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Sep 4, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Clay Helton on the sidelines in the first half of the game against the San Jose State Spartans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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USC TrojansAuburn Tigers

The USC Trojans have not met expectations since the Trojans hired coach Lincoln Riley, and USC is still looking for the program's first appearance in the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, the recent disappointment for USC extends beyond Riley's tenure in Southern California.

On3's Brett McMurphy recently analyzed the most overrated and underrated college football teams since the CFP was introduced before the 2014 season. Ultimately, McMurphy determined that the USC Trojans have been the No. 1 most overrated team since 2014, followed by the Auburn Tigers at No. 2.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half
Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Here is the full top-25 from McMurphy:

1. USC Trojans
2. Auburn Tigers
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. LSU Tigers
5. Wisconsin Badgers
6. Florida State Seminoles
7. Oregon Ducks
8. Oklahoma Sooners
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Michigan Wolverines
11. Stanford Cardinal
12. North Carolina Tar Heels
13. UCLA Bruins
14. Georgia Bulldogs
15. Alabama Crimson Tide
16. Clemson Tigers
17. Arkansas Razorbacks
18. Utah Utes
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers
21. Texas Longhorns
22. South Carolina Gamecocks
23. Iowa State Cyclones
24. Kansas State Wildcats
25. Ohio State Buckeyes

USC began the CFP era with now-Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian leading the Trojans' program. Sarkisian was followed by current Georgia Southern coach Clay Helton who was eventually fired before the school hired Riley away from the Oklahoma Sooners.

USC Trojans head coach Clay Helton on the sidelines in the first half of the game against the San Jose State Spartans
Sep 4, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Clay Helton on the sidelines in the first half of the game against the San Jose State Spartans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Since 2014, McMurphy noted the Trojans' tendency to drop in the polls after starting nearly every season with renewed expectations:

"In the 11-year span since 2014, USC has been ranked in the preseason polls in all but one season. The Trojans have finished with a lower final ranking in eight of 10 years. They also were not ranked in the final poll five times, including three of the last four seasons."

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McMurphy also revealed his criteria for determining which teams were under and overrated, and it hinges on team's positioning in the preseason poll:

"Determining the most overrated and underrated programs in the CFP era is simple. To be overrated, teams must be ranked in the preseason poll," wrote McMurphy. "It’s impossible for teams to be overrated if they’re not ranked at the outset. It’s the opposite for the underrated teams. The majority of underrated teams were not ranked in the preseason but finished ranked; or they improved their final ranking compared to their preseason ranking."

Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the Texas A&M Aggies.
Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the Texas A&M Aggies in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Ahead of the 2025 season, USC is unranked in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll although there is some optimism surrounding Riley's Trojans. Other Big Ten programs made the top-25 like Illinois and Indiana, but USC has the fifth-best odds (+1900) of winning the Big Ten Championship in 2025, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Only Ohio State (+190), Penn State (+210), Oregon (+430), and Michigan (+1000) have better odds to win the conference title than the Trojans' in 2025.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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Charlie Viehl
CHARLIE VIEHL

Charlie Viehl is the deputy editor for the Oregon Ducks, Colorado Buffaloes, and USC Trojans on SI. He has written hundreds of articles for SI and has covered events like the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff Quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl. While pursuing a career in sports journalism, he is also a lifelong musician, holding a degree in Music and Philosophy from Boston College. A native of Pasadena, California, he covered sports across Los Angeles while at Loyola High School and edited the Gabelli Presidential Scholars Program’s magazine at BC. He is excited to bring his passion for storytelling and sports to fans of college athletics.

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