USC Trojans' Playoff Path Raises Questions After Penn State Win

The No. 19 USC Trojans stay stuck in the latest AP Top-25 poll, and their chances of reaching the College Football Playoff are still slim despite having a 6-1 record heading into their bye week.

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley on the field during warm ups before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 19 USC Trojans silenced all the doubters in Week 6 when they came into Beaver Stadium, tuned out the White Out crowd and beat the Penn State Nittany Lions 31-23. Now the Trojans will get a much-needed break in Week 7, but one problem still remains: their chances of reaching the College Football Playoff.

Stagnant Ranking and Slim Chances

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (17) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In the latest AP Top-25 poll update, Southern Cal stayed put at No. 19 while their crosstown rival, the UCLA Bruins, jumped ahead to No. 12 after handling the formerly ranked No. 13 Oregon Ducks – who beat USC in Week 4. Future opponents Ohio State (No. 4) and Indiana (No. 5) are confidently placed within the top five of the poll.

In ESPN’s latest CFP projection after Week 6, the Trojans were missing entirely. Coming out of the Big Ten were the Buckeyes, who claimed the fifth seed, the Hoosiers in the seventh seed and the Bruins sliding in at the tenth seed. ESPN’s playoff predictor is also giving the Trojans a 17 percent chance to be one of the 12 teams. UCLA (28 percent), Indiana (88 percent), Ohio State (77 percent) and even Nebraska (21 percent) have the edge over USC in this analytical predictor as well.

The Bright Side of the Trojans’ Strength of Schedule

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans cornerback Chasen Johnson (27) recovers the fumble during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While these projections can be discouraging, it's also not a surprise given USC’s schedule. In the preseason, USC had the nineteenth-hardest schedule in the nation and fourth-hardest in the Big Ten. Even though they had a very easy non-conference slate of games, Southern Cal’s performance in their 3-0 start did raise some questions. Entering conference play, the back-and-forth battle with Rutgers – albeit a 42-25 win – and losing to Oregon at home didn’t help either.

The Trojans were able to bounce back these past two weeks. The offense was sound and put up points despite being hit with the injury bug, and the defense came up huge, practically wrapping up each game with a stop – Kameryn Crawford’s sack in the red zone versus Washington and Christian Pierce’s peanut punch at Penn State.

This tough latter half of the season is Southern Cal’s biggest challenge to reach the CFP. In their Week 8 road game at Wisconsin, ESPN’s Power Football Index (FPI) is giving the Trojans a 55 percent chance to win the game. Fans should consider this projection generous, as Wisconsin was viewed as a team in a transition period in the preseason but is now entering Week 7 (Oct. 24) with a 4-1 record. Also, just like the Trojans, the Badgers walked into the Nittany Lions’ den and won 24-20.

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojan players celebrate following the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The next challenge is in Week 9 (Oct. 31), when USC hosts Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI is giving the Buckeyes a whopping 79-percent chance to win. USC’s home loss to Oregon probably affected this projection, taking away USC’s greatest strength. The Buckeyes also boast top-ten offensive and defensive units:

• Offense: No. 5 in points per game (42.7) and No. 4 in yards per game (503.7)
• Defense: No. 6 in points allowed per game (13.2) and No. 3 in yards allowed per game (246.8)

The third and last challenge remaining according to FPI is USC’s Week 10 road game at Indiana. The defending champs are strong favorites with an 86 percent chance to win. With their come-from-behind victory at Nebraska in Week 6, it's hard to count out Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers, who still find ways to win.

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans running back King Miller (8) runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Although it didn't make ESPN’s FPI, USC’s regular season finale versus UCLA just got more interesting with the Bruins' rise in rankings.

All this to say, USC’s tough schedule may actually be their saving grace. Back in September, the CFP Committee shared that they will have a different approach when using the strength of schedule metric for the selection process. The tweak will place more emphasis on schedule strength of each team per conference. If the goal is to separate teams in the same conference with the same record, USC will have the edge due to the aforementioned fourth-hardest schedule in the Big Ten.

In the history of the CFP, 10 teams with two losses have made the cut – six of which appeared last season. There have also been two three-loss teams that made the CFP – 2024 Clemson (10-3) and 2025 Alabama (10-3). Precedent has been set. USC has a chance to fight for a berth, even if it means missing out on a conference championship.

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