Vegas Releases USC Trojans Football's Projected 2026 Win Total

The USC Trojans may need to surpass their projected win total to reach their goals of making the College Football Playoff in Lincoln Riley's fifth season.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Ahead of what will be a pivotal fifth year for coach Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans, Vegas oddsmakers have released their early win total projections for every Big Ten team entering the 2026 college football season. 

If the projection for USC comes true, the Trojans could be in for yet another disappointing season. According to the latest odds by FanDuel Sportsbook, the Trojans' win total for the 2026 season is set at 8.5 games. 

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) handles the ball during the game against the Oregon Ducks during the first half at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

With expectations to reach the College Football Playoff, winning at most nine games likely won’t be enough for the Trojans to earn a spot in the playoff, resulting in yet another disappointing season that begins with championship aspirations for USC.

Where USC Trojans Stacks Up Compared to Top Big Ten Teams

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The four teams with higher win totals are opponents on the Trojans 2026 schedule, including the Penn State Nittany Lions (9.5), Ohio State Buckeyes (9.5), Indiana Hoosiers (10.5), and Oregon Ducks (10.5). The Michigan Wolverines, who aren’t on the Trojans 2026 schedule, have a projected win total of 8.5 games as they enter their first season under new coach Kyle Whittingham.  

Last season, the Trojans finished with a 9-4 overall record, a year that was capped off with a devastating 30-27 overtime loss to the TCU Horned Frogs in the Alamo Bowl. All three of the Trojans regular-season losses came on the road against the Illinois Fighting Illini, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and Oregon Ducks. In those three games, USC’s defense gave up 30 points or more. 

How USC Surpasses Projected Win Total

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Based on the projected win total, USC could be heading in the same direction that they were in last season. In addition to the return of starting quarterback Jayden Maiava and the several notable returners for USC on both the offensive and defensive sides, the Trojans also bring in the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. 

Former TCU coach Gary Patterson also arrives as the Trojans new defensive coordinator following the departure of D’Anton Lynn to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Patterson looks to bring a new energy to USC’s defense entering the 2026 season, as their performance will play a pivotal role in whether the Trojans make or miss the CFP next year. 

With marquee matchups at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks, along with key road games with the Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers, USC must post a winning record in these contests to reach the CFP. 

The Trojans will have to overcome an obstacle that has been extremely difficult to climb in the four years of Riley’s tenure as coach, which is to win a road game. The Oct. 10 matchup against Penn State, which could be the Nittany Lions' annual whiteout game at Beaver Stadium, will be an early indication of whether Riley’s USC group is up to the task to win a game on the road. 

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