Examining Utah's College Football Playoff chances at the bye week

Looking at how the advanced metrics and betting markets foresee Utah's College Football Playoff aspirations play out the rest of the 2025 regular season

Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) looks to pass while being pressured by West Virginia Mountaineers linebacker Braden Siders (10) during the first quarter at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Following a dominant win on the road in Big 12 play, the Utah football team headed into a much-needed bye week after a grueling first month of the season.

A 48-14 victory over West Virginia in Week 5 improved the Utes to 4-1 on the 2025 campaign, helping them keep pace in an ultra-competitive conference while providing some momentum they hope will carry over through the rest of league play. An even bigger bonus for Kyle Whittingham and company would be if the bye week provided some of Utah's banged-up players opportunities to rest up and heal before it's time to take the field again.

"You don’t want to sit on a loss ever, but to sit on it for two weeks is double the torture," Whittingham said after the West Virginia game. "And so it’s really big to be able to end that, what, first half, almost first half of the season on a positive and get some guys healed up hopefully, and gives us momentum into the next contest."

Based on the Utes' current College Football Playoff outlook, they'll need some of the magic they had in the first half of the season to transfer over as they look ahead to the rest of their Big 12 schedule.

Utah's College Football Playoff chances

Utah was sort of a trendy pick to make the 12-team playoff early on following three wire-to-wire wins to start the season, but a 24-point loss at home to Texas Tech made the Red Raiders the new favorite to represent the Big 12 in the eyes of most prognosticators. Shortly after that Sept. 20 contest at Rice-Eccles Stadium, FanDuel Sportsbook dropped the Utes' odds of taking home the Big 12 championship to +1500 — a week after having Utah at +270 odds to make the College Football Playoff.

Beating an injured Mountaineers squad boosted the Utes' odds slightly, though they still sat behind Texas Tech (+112), Arizona State (+490) and Iowa State (+570) in the betting markets with +760 odds to make the playoff (as of Oct. 3).

Sep 27, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) runs out of the pocket during the third quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI had a similar outlook for the Big 12, with the Red Raiders (36.5%), Cyclones (15.4%), and Sun Devils (12.2%) boasting better chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. BYU also sat in the front of the Utes (8.3%) with the second-best probability rate at 35.2%.

Of course, if Utah were to capture the Big 12 championship following the regular season's conclusion, those odds would be rendered moot.

How can Utah make the College Football Playoff?

Winning out would be the likeliest way for the Utes to make the College Football Playoff. That sounds easier said than done, though if they pulled it off, there's hardly any doubt they'd receive the respect they needed from the selection committee to make the 12-team postseason.

According to ESPN FPI, Utah has the third toughest remaining schedule of any Big 12 team; only West Virginia and BYU have it harder the rest of the way. The Utes have an upcoming date with the Cougars after the Sun Devils pay a visit to Salt Lake City, and unless the Mountaineers circle the wagons and maintain a clean bill of health, they probably won't be crashing the party at the end of the season.

So, while teams like Texas Tech and TCU could add to their win totals off lighter schedules, Utah will have ample opportunities to strengthen its résumé with home games against the likes of Arizona State and Cincinnati, plus road trips to BYU, Baylor and Kansas before the season's end.

Aug 30, 2025; Pasadena, California, USA; Utah Utes tight end Dallen Bentley (88) scores a touchdown against the UCLA Bruins during the second half at Rose Bowl. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

If the Utes capitalize on their more premier matchups and handle their business elsewhere, they could find themselves playing for the conference title without needing to win it in order to make the College Football Playoff, because the Big 12 is likely to send two teams to the postseason anyway.

Still, Utah would probably need to run the table in order to play for the Big 12 championship in Arlington, Texas, this December, given Iowa State and Arizona State jumped out to 2-0 starts in league play while Texas Tech, already owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Utah, has a chance to sweep its Big 12 slate as well.

Big 12 teams likeliest to make College Football Playoff, per ESPN FPI

National rank in parentheses

1. Texas Tech: 36.5% (12)
2. BYU: 35.2% (13)
3. Iowa State: 15.4% (22)
4. Arizona State: 12.2% (25)
5. Utah: 8.3% (33)
6. TCU: 6.3% (35)
7. Cincinnati: 3.4% (42)
8. Houston: 2.1% (48)
9. Kansas: 2.1% (49)
10. Baylor: 0.8% (56)
11. Arizona: 0.4% (58)
12. Kansas State: 0.4% (60)
13. UCF: 0.2% (64)
14. Colorado: 0.0% (80)
15. Oklahoma State: 0.0% (95)
16. West Virginia: 0.0% (104)

Big 12 teams with best odds to make College Football Playoff, per FanDuel

• Texas Tech: +112
• Arizona State: +490
• Iowa State: +570
• Utah: +760
• BYU: +880
• TCU: +1040
• Cincinnati: +1120
• Baylor: +1800
• Houston: +1800
• Kansas: +2500

Big 12 remaining strength of schedule rankings, per ESPN FPI

1. West Virginia
2. BYU
3. Utah
4. Kansas State
5. UCF
6. Kansas
7. Iowa State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Colorado
10. Arizona State
11. Cincinnati
12. Arizona
13. Baylor
14. TCU
15. Texas Tech
16. Houston

---

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.