What's at stake when Utah faces BYU in rivalry football game

Utes and Cougars set to clash in high-stakes Holy War matchup

Utah Utes sophomore Omar Shah (32) reacts to a play against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the third quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

There's always plenty of stakes involved when Utah and BYU square off.

But when the Utes (5-1) and Cougars (6-0) go toe-to-toe Saturday in the first-ranked matchup between the two rivals in over a decade, more than just in-state bragging rights will be on the line.

From College Football Playoff aspirations to Big 12 title hopes, here's a look at the ramifications baked into the 103rd all-time Holy War matchup.

Bragging Rights

Of course, there's no way to overstate the importance Saturday's contest will be for both fan bases, especially when it comes to shaping the discourse around the rivalry for the next calendar year.

BYU fans have been able to gloat since their team snapped Utah's nine-game head-to-head win streak in 2021 with a 26-17 victory at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The Cougars' first win in the rivalry since 2009 turned into a two-game win streak over the Utes last season, when a controversial call late in the fourth quarter against Utah helped set up a game-winning field goal for Will Ferrin to bang through the uprights and grant BYU its first victory in Salt Lake City since 2006.

Now, Kyle Whittingham and company seek their first win over BYU since cruising to a 30-12 win in 2019, which was also the last time they triumphed in Provo.

Last five Holy War meetings

• Sept. 9, 2024: BYU 22, Utah 21 (Salt Lake City)
• Sept. 11, 2021: BYU 26, Utah 17 (Provo)
• Aug. 29, 2019: Utah 30, BYU 12 (Provo)
• Nov. 24, 2018: Utah 35, BYU 27 (Salt Lake City)
• Sept. 9, 2017: Utah 19, BYU 13 (Provo)

College Football Playoff Aspirations

There'll be plenty of football to play after Saturday, though, given that both teams are near the top of the Big 12 standings (behind Texas Tech) and enter Week 8 with a combined 11-1 record, their respective résumés will be put under a microscope leading up to the final selections for the College Football Playoff on Dec. 7.

Capturing the conference championship in December would, of course, alleviate the Utes of any stressors a team would have if it needed to get into the College Football Playoff with an at-large bid, but in the meantime, they'll need to keep their résumé squeaky clean the rest of the way.

Utah's strength of record, according to ESPN FPI, is ranked No. 27 in the country and No. 4 in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech (No. 6), BYU (No. 9) and Cincinnati (No. 21). The Utes check in at No. 2 in the Big 12 and No. 14 nationally in FPI's power index rankings, and have the second-toughest schedule in the league behind the Cougars.

Based on the SEC and Big Ten's control over the upper echelon of FPI's rankings, it's likely that only one Big 12 team will earn an at-large bid into the playoff. If the Utes can stack wins over the Cougars and Bearcats, and take care of business against their other league opponents, they'll be set up nicely going into December.

Big 12 teams with highest chances of making College Football Playoff according to ESPN FPI

• Texas Tech: 69%
• BYU: 36.8%
• Utah: 22.6%
• Cincinnati: 6.3%
• Arizona State: 1.2%
• Iowa State: 1.2%

Big 12 Title Hopes

A team from the Big 12 will punch its ticket to the 12-team playoff the day before the College Football Playoff selection committee selection makes their decisions with a win in the conference championship game on Dec. 6. Should the Red Raiders run the table the rest of the way, their opponent in the Big 12 title game will likely have sustained one or potentially two losses in conference play. That puts even more pressure on Utah heading into Saturday, given that it's already dropped a game to Texas Tech and will have to play another undefeated team (Cincinnati) on Nov. 1.

The Cougars have a pivotal stretch of their own coming up, with matchups against the Red Raiders (Nov. 8) and Bearcats (Nov. 22) following a trip out to Ames, Iowa, to take on a talented yet struggling Cyclones squad that'll be fresh off a bye week (Oct. 25). Needless to say, a loss to Utah would make BYU's margin of error the rest of the way much slimmer in comparison to a win over its in-state rival.

Teams with highest chances of winning Big 12 according to ESPN FPI

• Texas Tech (3-0): 58.6%
• BYU (3-0): 18.2%
• Utah (2-1): 14.1%
• Cincinnati (3-0): 5.1%
• Arizona State (2-1): 1.1%