Column: Vanderbilt Baseball Margin for Error Has Reached Razor Thin

The clock is ticking and there is not much time left on the timer of Vanderbilt baseball’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

The Commodores lost the second game and lost the series against No. 24 Alabama Friday in what was a must-win situation. Vanderbilt starting pitcher Aiden Stillman allowed three runs in the first inning before the Crimson Tide added two more runs in the bottom of the third to win the game 5-0.

What makes the loss more frustrating from Vanderbilt’s side is that it outhit Alabama nine hits to eight. But what ended up being the death of Vanderbilt Friday was leaving 11 runners on base. In the second inning, the Commodores had a chance to strike back after loading the bases with one out, but they failed to put any runs on the board. In the fourth inning, Vanderbilt had runners on second and third with one out, but consecutive popouts from Ryker Waite and Mike Mancini ended the inning with a zero spot on the scoreboard.

Now, Vanderbilt sits at 10-13 in the SEC going into the series finale against the Crimson Tide. Throughout the conference season, it has seemed that getting the 15-win mark in conference play should be just enough for Vanderbilt to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. That mark should start to be called into question if it wants to feel good about its chances on selection day. It may end up taking 16 SEC wins for Vanderbilt to feel good about its tournament hopes, especially considering its RPI ranking of 64.

If you do the math on that, that means Vanderbilt needs to win six of its seven remaining SEC games to finish the regular season with a 16-14 conference record. While that is certainly going to be extremely difficult to do, it is not entirely impossible given the Commodores’ remaining schedule.

One thing now remains true heading into the series finale this weekend: Vanderbilt’s margin for error is officially razor thin.

In fact, Saturday’s series finale is Vanderbilt’s last opportunity to get a win against a team that is ranked higher than 91st in the RPI rankings. The Crimson Tide were ranked sixth on the RPI heading into Thursday, but Vanderbilt finishes the season with a midweek game against Louisville, a series at Missouri and a home series against South Carolina. Those teams RPI rankings? 93rd, 91st and 121st, respectively.

On one hand, Vanderbilt still has a chance to stack wins to end the season and jump more into the tournament picture. On the other hand, it does not play any quality teams to boost its resume before conference tournament week.

If Friday’s game was a must-win, that makes Saturday’s game feel almost like a Game 7 playoff game just for Vanderbilt to give itself a reasonable chance to make the NCAA Tournament. And that assumes Vanderbilt will do what it needs against Missouri and South Carolina.

The sting of Vanderbilt’s series loss all goes back to Thursday night’s blown lead following a pitching change that took starting pitcher Connor Fennell out of the game. Alabama came back to steal the series opener from Vanderbilt. Had Vanderbilt held off the Crimson Tide Thursday, the narrative and the margin for error would be much less severe.

Instead, Vanderbilt is in a position where Saturday’s game may be for all or nothing barring a SEC Tournament run given how weak the remaining schedule is. The ultimate question is how the selection committee would view Vanderbilt if it loses Saturday, but wins out going into the SEC Tournament. How much would its RPI ranking rise in that scenario? That remains to be seen.

The Commodores are just hoping it does not get to that situation and that Wyatt Nadeau is able to help save Vanderbilt’s season. For now, at least.

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