Does Vanderbilt Control Its Own Destiny? That's The Million-Dollar Question; Column
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NASHVILLE—Since the moment in which Brock Taylor’s onside kick unceremoniously trickled out of bounds and ended all possibilities that Vanderbilt was going to finish off a potentially historic comeback against Texas in Austin, it really hasn’t had any choice.
This group has had to play as if its back was against the wall, it’s had to be cognizant of the idea that it doesn’t have all that much margin for error and it’s had to internalize the message that its quarterback delivered to the small contingent of travelling media members that afternoon.
"We just got to win out,” Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia said while declaring that his team had every goal out in front of it despite the loss. “So keep that in mind. Tomorrow we got practice, so we'll bring the energy and be ready to go."
The practices since have had the proper mix of urgency and faith in the idea that if this team handled its business in its final three games it would reach its goal of the College Football Playoff. Based off of the precedent set in the 12-team Playoff’s first season no SEC team with two losses was left out of the field and that a team in the conference–in which Vanderbilt beat–with three losses was the first team out, it appeared as if Vanderbilt’s hopes that it would get into the field with two losses weren’t all that far fetched.
It never appeared to be a guarantee, but the idea that this Vanderbilt team could knock off Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee while simultaneously making itself a lock appeared to be one this program clinged to. Since that day it’s checked Auburn off of its list, but it appears as if the hill towards the school’s first playoff berth is steeper than it initially appeared.
The first sign of trouble in terms of this group’s at-large hopes appeared to come in the days following that Texas loss when it was ranked No. 16–which was generally a few spots lower than the consensus–in the Playoff committee’s first rendition of their rankings. The second came on Saturday as the SEC indicated that it’s less top heavy in 2025 than it was in 2024 and that two losses may be too many for certain teams to find their way into the field.
Oklahoma keeping itself alive with a win over Alabama–which also has two losses–as underdogs appeared to be the best example in that case study. Outside of the league, Notre Dame’s win over Pitt, Utah’s win over Baylor and Ole Miss holding off Florida fended off Vanderbilt from moving up significantly in the playoff picture. The one refuge for Vanderbilt appeared to be Georgia giving No. 10 Texas its third loss, but there is still an argument that a three-loss Texas team still deserves a bid over Vanderbilt.
The Commodores’ raw win total and resume appears to be good enough to get it in, but the way it’s aged has brought the future into question. Vanderbilt’s road win at Virginia Tech no longer appears to be all that impressive on paper after the Hokies’ disaster of a stretch in which they’ve lost four of five while in the midst of a coaching search. Its top 15 wins over South Carolina, LSU and Missouri have all diminished in value as the three teams have all fallen out of the committee’s top 25 ranking.
In reality, Vanderbilt’s two best opportunities to add top-tier wins have resulted in head-to-head losses to Alabama and Texas. Vegas gives Vanderbilt a 23.81% chance to make the Playoff as a result.
It’s not to say that the proper attitude here is doom and gloom or that Vanderbilt can’t find itself in the field when this is all said and done–after all, a road win over Tennessee would be perhaps the best win it has heading into the selection show and its overall rèsumè may jump a few teams’ if it wins out–but it needs to get more help than it’s gotten to this point.
Vanderbilt has to go 2-0 the rest of the way to have a chance at this thing and has to hope that the radical ideals that make college football’s final weeks meaningful manifest themselves on fields that it’s not playing on. It can work to insulate itselves all that it wants, but it knows its situation as well as anyone else.
“We don't ignore that,” Lea said of the playoff situation after Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn. “We embrace it. I mean it, not even embrace it. I mean, that's our talk. Like we own that, because we've talked about it since January 7. So that's something we embrace, and we were striving for. And I said this to the team today in the hotel. I mean, that we're out of opportunities. I mean, everything's at stake, and the mission is winning. So if at some point we're dealt a blow, we'll still be on mission, but until otherwise, we're aiming for those playoffs, and that's important to us right now.”
The idea that Vanderbilt wants to make the College Football Playoff as well as the belief that it can get there has manifested itself into perhaps the most successful first 10-game stretch of a season in program history has pushed it to this point and will push it toward the finish of the season. Its two missteps have left it in a position in which its aspirations aren’t fulfillable, though.
This Vanderbilt team now sits in the anxious reality that what it’s done and what it’s going to do the rest of the way may not be enough to get it where it wants to go. It has to drown that out and give the Playoff committee a difficult decision.
_(1)-b3e453dfe426b2dd4b83a12540ebdb37.jpeg "Joey Dwyer")
Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Southeastern 16 and Mainstreet Nashville.
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