Vanderbilt Football Preseason Game Prediction: Kentucky

In the middle of Vanderbilt football’s schedule, right before its bye week on Halloweekend, lies a road matchup against Kentucky.

The last time the Commodores and Wildcats met on the field, Vanderbilt wrecked Kentucky, winning 45-17 in the final home game of the season. It was a magical night for the Vanderbilt program, but a lot has changed since then for both teams.

Obviously, Vanderbilt will have a new quarterback at the helm as well as a new top guy at the tight end slot. By the time Vanderbilt takes on Kentucky in its final game in October, it likely will not be a question going into the game who the quarterback is. More likely than not, the quarterback question will be decided far in advance of Oct. 24.

Kentucky will also have a new quarterback this season as well. Though the program has not named an official starting quarterback for the 2026 season, Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey Jr. seems to be one leading the race for the starting job. Minchey did not gain much experience during his time in South Bend, throwing a total of 29 passes going back to the 2023 season. In 2025, he had 196 yards after completing 20 of his 26 pass attempts.

Kentucky has plenty of other new faces on both sides of the ball, too. The Wildcats added three wide receiver transfers and former Texas running back CJ Baxter in addition to the three defenders they got through the transfer portal.

Oh, and Kentucky also has a new head coach. The Wildcats are now being coached by former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.

Here are keys to Vanderbilt’s matchup against Kentucky this fall and a game prediction.

Keys to the Game

If Minchey Jr. is the starter at quarterback, he will have gained some experience, but not a ton. So, the Commodores will need to make rushing Minchey Jr. a top priority on defense. Whether that means Vanderbilt’s EDGE rushers getting through the Kentucky offensive line or Vanderbilt getting home in the run game, putting pressure on a first-year starter will be critical.

Kentucky was one of the worst offenses in the SEC a season ago and 103rd in the country. It is difficult to imagine the Wildcats making a significant enough jump in that department that changes the trajectory of their season. If Vanderbilt is able to keep that trend for Kentucky going, it will set up for plenty of success.

Last season, Vanderbilt’s offense exploded against Kentucky. But this time around, it will have a guy that is much less experienced at the helm. However, this game will be in late October, so the development of either Jared Curtis or Blaze Berlowitz should show in this type of game.

Vanderbilt’s offense just has to consistently move the ball down the field and capitalize on the scoring opportunities when they arrive. It likely will not take a shootout to win this game, so Vanderbilt has to allow for its offensive development to come to fruition and play to its standard. If that happens, Vanderbilt has a great chance to win.

Prediction

This game being on the road is not the easiest task in the world, but Vanderbilt will have experienced harsher environments than Lexington by the time this game happens, potentially limiting the impact of the crowd.

Minchey Jr. (or whoever the starting quarterback is) could surprise people with his skillset and development, but that is hard to forecast in the preseason. At the end of the day, Vanderbilt’s leaders on defense will lead the way in this game while the offense finds enough opportunities to get a road win.

Score prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Kentucky 17

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