ESPN's BPI Forecasts A Strong Showing in Conference Play for Virginia

What will the rest of the Virginia Cavaliers' 2025-26 campaign look like?

Dec 22, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Chance Mallory (2) shoots the ball over American University Eagles forward Julen Iturbe (32) and Eagles forward Greg Jones (23) /dc2h/ at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers' men's basketball program will face tough competition ahead as they prepare to open ACC play against Virginia Tech next week. The Cavaliers just wrapped up a 95-51 win over American earlier this week, giving them some momentum heading into conference play. Ahead of the opener, let's take a look at ESPN's BPI forecast for the rest of their season.

Virginia Tech (Dec. 31)

Dec 2, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks guard Meechie Johnson (5) drives past Virginia Tech Hokies guard Jailen Bedford (0) in the first half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech will mark the Cavaliers' first ACC matchup of the season. The Hokies are riding an 11-1 record, having finished their latest game against Elon with an incredibly tight 82-81 victory. The BPI for the Virginia-Virginia Tech matchup gives UVA a 67.1% chance of winning.

NC State (Jan. 3)

With a 9-4 overall record, UVA will be the more imposing team during this meeting. Earlier this week, they faced Ole Miss (7-5), which resulted in a 76-62 victory. The BPI forecast gives NC State a 65.9% of coming out on top. Will Virginia beat the odds?

California (Jan. 7)

Dec 21, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears forward Chris Bell (22) drives the basket against Columbia Lions guard Miles Franklin (24) during the first half at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Fortunately for the Cavaliers, it's looking like they have a strong chance of winning this contest, as the BPI places them at 83.0%. However, right now, California has one of the best records in the ACC, 12-1.

Stanford (Jan. 10)

Once again, the BPI projects that UVA will win this matchup, this time giving them a 85.6% chance. Stanford is 10-2 overall, with their most recent game taking place against Colorado. The Cardinal clinched a 77-68 win over Colorado.

Louisville (Jan. 13)

Dec 20, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac McKneely (10) dribbles against Montana Grizzlies guard Tyler Isaak (8) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Montana 94-54. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Louisville is expected to come out on top by a large margin, only giving UVA a 15.6% chance of winning. Running 10-2 in the overall, the Cardinals recently handed a whopping 94-54 to Montana.

SMU (Jan. 17)

The outcome here will be interesting; UVA has a 49.5% chance of winning, but this could easily flip the other way around. SMU is 10-2 overall, wrapping up their latest matchup with a 99-82 victory against Central AR.

North Carolina (TBD)

Dec 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Jaydon Young (4) brings the ball up court against the East Carolina Pirates during the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

North Carolina is now 12-1 after defeating East Carolina with a final score of 99-51. Although the date has yet to be determined, the BPI gives UVA a 62.5% chance of winning.

Notre Dame (Jan. 27)

Notre Dame is running 9-4 right now. Over the weekend, the Fighting Irish faced a 72-69 loss to Purdue FW. The BPI only gives UVA a 56.0% chance of winning, so the Cavaliers could just barely secure a victory.

Boston College (Jan. 31)

Mar 8, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Boston College Eagles guard Dion Brown (1) dribbles the ball against Pittsburgh Panthers guard Ishmael Leggett (5) during the first half at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Boston College has been struggling to gain traction this season, currently riding a 6-6 record. Considering their woes, UVA has an 87.8% chance of defeating the Eagles.

Pitt (Feb. 3)

Pitt has been claiming massive wins recently, with its latest meeting ending in an 80-46 victory. The BPI gives Virginia an 83.5% chance of winning, but the Panthers have been making a substantial amount of improvements during their latest contests.

Syracuse (Feb. 7)

Dec 22, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Syracuse Orange guard Naithan George (11) drives the baseline with Stonehill Skyhawks guard Trenton Ruth (2) defending in the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Syracuse just clinched a 77-48 win over Stonehill this past weekend, bringing their record to 9-4. The BPI forecast gives UVA an 80.5% chance of winning on Feb. 7.

Florida State (Feb. 10)

Florida State is one of the ACC programs struggling to build momentum this season, They currently have a 7-6 overall record, but they did just clinch an 87-63 victory over Jacksonville. According to the BPI, the Cavaliers have a 72.6% chance of winning against the Seminoles.

Ohio State (Feb. 14)

Ohio State Buckeyes forward Devin Royal (21) shoots the ball in the first half of the NCAA men’s basketball game Value City Arena on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Although Ohio State is not an ACC team, they're included in the Big Ten, this will be an interesting matchup that fans won't want to miss. The Buckeyes are 9-3 overall, and the BPI gives UVA a minor edge over Ohio State at 51.7%.

Georgia Tech (Feb. 18)

Georgia Tech is 8-4 overall after coming off of a 95-81 loss to Lafayette. The BPI forecast gives UVA an 82.2% chance of winning on Feb. 18.

Miami (Feb. 21)

Dec 15, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Davion Mitchell (45) dribbles the basketball against the Toronto Raptors during the fourth quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Miami just took home a colossal 105-67 victory over North Florida over the weekend, bringing their record to 11-2. Their only losses this season have been to BYU (72-62) and Florida (82-68). The BPI forecast has UVA edging out Miami at 68.8%.

NC State (Feb. 24)

This will mark the second Virginia-NC State meeting of the season. In January, UVA will have the chance to scope out the Wolfpack. The BPI gives the Cavaliers a 60.1% chance of coming out on top.

Duke (Feb. 28)

Dec 20, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) controls the ball against Texas Tech Red Raiders guards Leon Horner (6) and Christian Anderson (4) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Duke is, unsurprisingly, one of the better teams in the ACC, running 11-1 overall. Over the weekend, they faced Texas Tech for a meeting at Madison Square Garden, which resulted in a close 82-81 victory. Unfortunately, the BPI gives the Blue Devils a 90.1% chance of winning.

Wake Forest (March 3)

Currently 9-4, Wake Forest just faced a brutal 98-67 loss to Vanderbilt. According to the BPI forecast, UVA has a 76.2% chance of winning against the Demon Deacons once March 3 rolls around.

Virginia Tech (March 7)

Dec 2, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Ben Hammond (3) drives around South Carolina Gamecocks guard Eli Ellis (15) in the second half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

UVA's first ACC matchup against the Hokies will set the stage for their final game, and will provide insight into Virginia Tech's program this year. Looking ahead to March 7, Virginia has an 85.5% chance of defeating the Hokies.