Virginia Basketball: How Can the Cavaliers Make the NCAA Tournament?

Taking a look at UVA's NCAA Tournament resume and what the Hoos have to do to earn a bid to March Madness

Author:
Matt Newton
Updated:
Feb 25, 2022 11:38 AM EST
Original:
Feb 25, 2022

Just 16 days remain until Selection Sunday, when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will announce the 68 teams that have earned a bid to participate in March Madness.

With the exception of the cancelled 2020 tournament, Virginia has made appearances in each of the last seven NCAA Tournaments dating back to 2014. There are just over two weeks left until the bracket is revealed and that streak is in serious jeopardy.

With Virginia's 65-61 loss to No. 7 Duke on Wednesday night, the Cavaliers now sit at 17-11 and 11-7 in ACC play. UVA has Quad 1 wins over Providence, Duke, and Miami and has largely passed the eye test as an NCAA Tournament-caliber team in the last month. However, the Cavaliers lost some bad games in the first half of the season that continue to offset their recent improvements and impressive performances. UVA is 4-4 in Quad 3 games, including losses at JMU (NET 206) and NC State (NET 137) and at home against Navy (NET 157) and Clemson (NET 92). Despite winning five of their last seven games, including two wins against Miami and a win at No. 7 Duke, the Cavaliers have a NET ranking of 80 and remain firmly on the wrong side of the cutoff line in most NCAA Tournament projections.

UVA's close loss against a top-10 Duke team is not the end of the world (yet), but Virginia's pathways to the NCAA Tournament are limited and challenging.

At this point, the only way that the Cavaliers can guarantee a March Madness bid is by winning the ACC Tournament title and acquiring the conference's automatic bid. Anything short of that will have the Hoos sweating it out on Selection Sunday alongside a number of bubble teams around the country.

While coming just four points short of completing a season-sweep over Duke seems like a colossal missed opportunity for the Cavaliers, the loss to the Blue Devils had a very minimal impact on UVA's NCAA Tournament chances.

Before Wednesday's game, BracketResearch.com gave Virginia a 3.0% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. UVA's NET ranking was 82, KenPom - 73, Sagarin - 59, BPI - 59, and SOS (Strength of Schedule) - 48. After the loss, UVA's probability of making March Madness remained at 3.0%. The Cavaliers' NET (80), Sagarin (57), BPI (58), and SOS (43) rankings actually improved slightly as a result of playing a high-ranked opponent so closely. UVA's KenPom ranking fell just one spot to 74.

The reason for this outcome is that the result of Virginia's game against Duke, while crucial, was actually less important than UVA's next pair of games against Florida State and at Louisville to end the regular season. Had the Cavaliers succeeded in defeating the Blue Devils for a second time, their metrics and odds would have changed (positively), but not nearly as significantly as they will (negatively) if Virginia loses to Florida State (NET 108) or Louisville (NET 124). NET rankings punish teams much more severely for losing to bad competition than they reward teams for beating good competition.

Regardless of whether UVA had defeated Duke on Wednesday, the Cavaliers would have still needed to beat Florida State and Louisville and deliver a strong performance in the ACC Tournament to have a chance at qualifying for March Madness. With the loss to Duke, that is still the case. A loss to either Florida State or Louisville will, without question, eliminate any chance Virginia has of making the NCAA Tournament via an at-large bid.

At minimum, the Cavaliers need to beat Florida State and Louisville and then win its first two (and possibly three) games in the ACC Tournament to put themselves in the conversation for an at-large bid. Virginia will likely finish outside the top four in the ACC standings, meaning that the Cavaliers will not receive a double-bye in the ACC Tournament for the first time since 2017, when the Hoos entered the tournament as a No. 6 seed. While getting a double-bye gives those top four teams a distinct advantage in winning the tournament title, it might actually be beneficial for the Cavaliers if they have to play that extra game as it gives them another opportunity to add a win to their record. Virginia could win three games before reaching the ACC Championship Game, which, in addition to the necessary wins over Florida State and Louisville, would give the Cavaliers 22 wins on the season.

Neither of UVA’s next two games will move the NET needle for the Cavaliers very much (unless they lose, of course), so Virginia’s only hope of earning an at-large bid would be to close out the regular season with two victories, win at least two or three games in the ACC Tournament and then hope for some help from the rest of the country. For those UVA fans who have become unfamiliar with life on the bubble since Tony Bennett has had the Hoos firmly in the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday for the last eight years, here are some reminders:

Virginia needs other Bubble teams (Indiana, SMU, Memphis, Dayton, etc.) to lose games down the stretch and perform poorly in their respective conference tournaments. Additionally, UVA fans will want to root against bid stealers: teams that win their conference tournament championship and earn the automatic March Madness bid from a conference in which there is another team that is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.

An example would be if a team other than Murray State wins the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) Tournament. At 27-2 and 17-0 in conference play, Murray State is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The OVC is likely a single-bid conference, as Belmont is the only other team in that conference that is close to the bubble. If a team other than Murray State wins the OVC tournament title, the OVC will have two teams qualify for the NCAA Tournament (Murray State and the conference champion), in effect stealing a bid from a team on the bubble. Virginia needs the presumptive favorites in each conference to win the conference tournaments to prevent the bubble from shrinking.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has Virginia as the seventh team out of the tournament behind SMU, San Diego State, BYU, Dayton, Oregon, and St. Bonaventure. Lunardi's last four in are Loyola Chicago, San Francisco, Indiana, and Memphis.

Obviously, Virginia is going to need some help with these teams in front of them losing some games if the Hoos want even a remote chance at an at-large bid. Otherwise, Virginia will have to run the table in the ACC Tournament.

UVA fans - buckle up - we're in for a stressful couple of weeks.

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