Virginia Basketball Bracketology Championship Week Update
Selection Sunday for the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is less than a week away. But before then, we've got an exciting stretch of basketball ahead of us as Championship Week will see top contenders battle for conference titles, while Bubble teams like Virginia try to solidify their position in the field of 68 with a good showing in their respective conference tournaments.
After capping the regular season with a solid 72-57 victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday, Virginia remains on the right side of the cutline in many NCAA Tournament Bracketology projections, but the jury is still out on what the Cavaliers need to do at this week's ACC Tournament in order to guarantee an at-large bid on Sunday.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Virginia in the "Last Four In" in his latest Bracketology, with UVA listed as the third to last team in the field. Lunardi's Last Four In are Indiana State, Virginia, Colorado, and St. John's with Villanova, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Iowa, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Providence, and Memphis on the outside looking in (in that order). In that projection, Lunardi has Virginia battling St. John's in the First Four for one of those final No. 11 seeds.
Most importantly, Lunardi has Virginia currently categorized as a "Win and In" team for its next game, meaning that he thinks the Cavaliers can secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament with a victory in their first ACC Tournament game, while a loss will leave them sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
The consensus is similar on Bracket Matrix, a website that compiles several bracket projections into a single spreadsheet. Of the 108 brackets listed on Bracket Matrix as of March 10th, Virginia is included in 94 of those predicted fields with an average seed of 10.71. So, the Cavaliers are in, but the majority of Bracketologists have them closer to that No. 11 seed line where a one-and-done showing at the ACC Tournament could knock them out. Of course, it's impossible to know whether the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee sees things the same way.
Here's Virginia's current NCAA Tournament resume:
NET ranking: No. 51
22-9 overall record, 15-2 at home, 5-6 on the road, 2-1 neutral
2-6 in Quad 1, 6-3 in Quad 2, 8-0 in Quad 3, 6-0 in Quad 4
Virginia is the No. 3 seed in the ACC Men's Basketball Tournament and has a double-bye to the quarterfinals, where the Cavaliers will face either No. 6 seed Clemson, No. 11 seed Boston College, or No. 14 seed Miami on Thursday at 9:30pm at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. If Clemson (NET 26) advances to the quarterfinals, it'll be a Quad 1 game on a neutral floor for UVA. If Boston College (NET 96) or Miami (NET 99) advance to the quarterfinals, it'll be a Quad 2 game for the Cavaliers.
A win over any of those three should do more than enough to keep Virginia in the NCAA Tournament, with a victory over Clemson having the most potential to improve UVA's seed line as it would give the Cavaliers their third Quad 1 win. A loss to Clemson shouldn't knock Virginia out, but it will make the rest of Championship Week a stressful one for the Cavaliers, who would have to sit and root against the other Bubble hopefuls and against any bid-stealers in other conferences. Losses to either Boston College or Miami would likely spell disaster for Virginia's NCAA Tournament hopes based on the latest projections.
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