Preview and Final Score Prediction For No. 10 Virginia vs No. 1 Duke

Virginia is aiming to capture their first ACC Tournament Championship since 2014. They will take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils tonight and look to cap off a great first season under head coach Ryan Odom.

UVA is 3-7 all-time in the ACC Tournament final. Top-ranked Duke defeated Virginia 77-51 on Feb. 28. The Cavaliers seek their fourth ACC Tournament title, capturing championships in 1976, 2014 and 2018. UVA seeks its first win against a top-ranked team (second in school history) since topping then-No. 1 North Carolina 86-73 on Jan. 30, 1986. UVA is averaging 81.0 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 19 games (most since 21 in 2000-01). UVA ranks 13th in the NET rankings and 13th in the KenPom. com rankings.

Who wins?

UVA meets Duke for the 182nd meeting overall and 21st time in the ACC Tournament in a series that dates to 1910-11. UVA is 4-16 all-time vs. Duke in the ACC Tournament, including a 1-1 record in the tournament final and 1-3 mark in Charlotte. Virginia is 0-17 against Duke when the Blue Devils have been ranked No. 1. UVA is 1-4 in its last five games vs. Duke and 3-7 in its last 10

The last meeting did not go well for UVA.

Isaiah Evans scored 19 points and Cameron Boozer added 18 as No. 1 Duke raced past then-No. 11 Virginia 77-51 on Feb. 28 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke jumped to a 41-26 halftime lead, highlighted by 8 of 13 shooting from 3-point range. Virginia lost the rebound battle (37-29) and had season lows in points (51) and field goal percentage (29.1%). Thijs De Ridder led UVA with 16 points.

However, if UVA plays like they did on Friday night against Miami, they are going to have a great chance to win.

Ugonna Onyenso scored 17 points and blocked four shots to lead No. 2 seed Virginia to an 84-62 win over No. 3 seed Miami on March 13 at Spectrum Center. Onyenso shot 8 of 9 from the field and has 12 blocks in two games at the ACC Tournament. Sam Lewis and Thijs De Ridder each added 16 points and Chance Mallory chipped in 12 points. UVA drilled 11 3-pointers and outrebounded Miami 38-26. Tru Washington led Miami with 13 points.

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in blocks (6.3 bpg), rebounding (40.5) and offensive rebounding (13.3), second in field goal percentage defense (39.6%) and scoring margin (+12.7), third in scoring defense (68.2 ppg), rebounding margin (+8.0), 3-point field goal percentage defense (.308) and defensive rebounds (27.2 rpg) and fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (36%), assists (16.8 apg), 3-pointers (10.2) and assist/turnover ratio (1.56).

Thijs De Ridder ranks 15th in scoring (15.8 ppg), ninth in field goal percentage (51.4%) and 17th in rebounding (6.2 rpg). Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.4) and 11th in assists (4.4 apg). Ugonna Onyenso leads the ACC in blocks at 2.8 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.2 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (3.1), seventh in steals (1.7 spg), 13th in assists (3.6 apg) and 15th in free throw percentage (78.2%). Jacari White ranks 13th in 3-pointers made per game (2.1).

Virginia is averaging a school-record 28.3 3-point attempts per game (34th nationally), surpassing 22.7 in 2007-08. UVA ranks 28th in 3-pointers per game (10.2) and 65th in 3-point percentage (36%). UVA has attempted 30 or more 3-pointers in 12 contests, including a school-record 45 at Virginia Tech (12/31/25). UVA has made 10 of more 3-pointers in a school-record 20 games, surpassing the 13 games by the 2018-19 national champion team. UVA had a school-record eight players make at least one 3-pointer in its win at Texas on Dec. 3. Jacari White (42.8%), Sam Lewis (40%), Devin Tillis (37.7%), Chance Mallory (35.6%), Johann Grünloh (35%), Malik Thomas (34.5%), Thijs DeRidder (34.3%) and Dallin Hall (33.3%) and are UVA’s 3-point percentage leaders. White set a UVA record with 12 consecutive made 3-pointers during a three-game stretch from Nov. 28-Dec. 6.

With Duke missing two key players and UVA playing well, I think this is the perfect opportunity for the Cavaliers to knock off the Blue Devils and take home the tournament championship.

Final Score: Virginia 73, Duke 71