Matt Riley/Virginia Athletics
Projecting Virginia's Starting Lineup With and Without Reece Beekman
The 2023 NBA Draft Combine officially got underway on Monday in Chicago with 78 of the top draft prospects looking to make a good impression in front of scouts, coaches, and general managers. Among those 78 participants is Reece Beekman, who has declared for the NBA Draft, but is retaining the option to return to college. That decision must come by the end of May and much of the information Beekman will use to make that decision will be learned at the combine this week, as NBA personnel will give Beekman an idea of where in the draft he is expected to be selected.
With the Virginia men's basketball roster undergoing some significant changes in the last two months, as eight scholarship players (including Beekman) left the roster and the Cavaliers added seven players - four transfers and three incoming freshmen - Beekman is the last wildcard to determine what UVA's roster will look like in the 2023-2024 season.
As the Hoos await Beekman's choice with bated breath, we're going to take a stab at projecting Virginia's starting lineup and rotations for next season for both scenarios - Beekman returning to UVA or remaining in the draft - with the obvious stipulation that this is simply rough approximation of what Virginia's lineups may look like when the Cavaliers take the floor next season:
If Reece Beekman returns
Starters
G Reece Beekman
G Isaac McKneely
G Andrew Rohde
F Ryan Dunn
F Jordan Minor
Bench
G Dante Harris
F Jacob Groves
G/F Leon Bond III
G/F Taine Murray
G Elijah Gertrude
F Blake Buchanan
F Anthony Robinson
If Reece Beekman doesn't return
Starters:
G Dante Harris
G Isaac McKneely
G Andrew Rohde
F Ryan Dunn
F Jordan Minor
Bench:
F Jacob Groves
G/F Leon Bond III
G Taine Murray
G Elijah Gertrude
F Blake Buchanan
F Anthony Robinson
Explanation
At this point, there are two players we see as absolute locks to crack Virginia's starting five next season: Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn. Given how much they played and made an impact in their time on the floor as true freshmen - which also shows how much trust Tony Bennett already has in them - and given how many pieces the Cavaliers lost from last season, McKneely and Dunn will end up being two of the most experienced (in terms of time spent in UVA's program) players on the roster. McKneely and Dunn are going to be asked to become the leaders of the team this season and it's almost guaranteed that Isaac McKneely will be the starting shooting guard and Ryan Dunn will start at one of the forward positions.
The other three spots in the starting five are less certain. Barring some unexpected development with UVA somehow adding another ready-to-play big man to next season's roster, Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor will likely start at center for the Cavaliers. At 6'8", Minor is slightly undersized in terms of height for a center, but that's certainly not unprecedented for the Cavaliers, who ran the 6'8" Ben Vander Plas at the five for the majority of the 2022-2023 campaign. What Minor lacks in height, he more than makes up for with his strength at 240 pounds and athleticism. Minor moves very well for his size, an invaluable trait in the Pack Line Defense as it will allow him to effectively hedge on ball screens and recover quickly. Assuming he can adjust to Virginia's defensive system, Jordan Minor seems to be the probable choice to share the front court with Ryan Dunn. We should also mention Oklahoma transfer Jake Groves at this point, as Groves has an inch on Minor at 6'9", but Minor has the edge in terms of strength and athleticism. Expect Groves to provide a big lift to the Cavaliers off the bench as a "stretch four", a forward capable of spreading the floor with a reliable three-point shot.
READ MORE: Will Reece Beekman Stay in the 2023 NBA Draft?
If Reece Beekman decides to return to Virginia, he easily slides back into his role as the starting point guard. In that case, the only question for the Cavaliers to answer is if they will choose to run two point guards on the floor simultaneously as they have for the last few seasons with Beekman sharing point guard duties with Georgetown transfer Dante Harris. The other option is to have Harris come off the bench in favor of having a bigger guard occupy Armaan Franklin's former role as the third guard/wing in Virginia's starting five. That spot could be filled by St. Thomas transfer Andrew Rohde, junior Taine Murray, or redshirt freshman Leon Bond III. For now, we have Andrew Rohde as the fifth starter in that lineup, but it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Dante Harris starting alongside Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely in the backcourt.
UVA's decision to secure the mid-season transfer commitment from Harris back in December was to prepare for the possibility that the Hoos might lose both Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman at the end of the 2022-2023 season. Harris will become Virginia's primary point guard at some point in the future- it could be this season if Beekman stays in the NBA Draft or it could be next season if Beekman decides to return.
If Beekman does not return to Virginia next season, then Dante Harris becomes the starting point guard with Isaac McKneely joining him in the backcourt at shooting guard. Then, the question again becomes who occupies the "three", with Rohde, Murray, and Bond III being the primary candidates for that spot. Much of that decision will come down to who can win the trust of Tony Bennett in their ability to play reliable defense and smart and productive offense.
Rohde had a fantastic freshman season at St. Thomas, averaging 17.1 points per game, and could bring a scoring punch to the starting five that the Cavaliers desperately need. But, there will expectedly be questions about how quickly Rohde will be able to adapt, both to UVA's system and to the level of basketball played in the ACC. Taine Murray is a rare case in this day and age as a former four-star recruit who has remained patient and loyal despite not getting very much playing time over his first two seasons at Virginia. He could potentially get the nod as the starter based on his experience in UVA's system and Murray could help himself earn that spot with some more reliable perimeter shooting in year 3. And finally, Leon Bond III looks to match the early success of his 2022 recruiting classmates McKneely and Dunn as he emerges from his redshirt season. Since we haven't seen him play in an actual game, there is a wide range of possibilities for what to expect from the 6'5" wing. How is his defense, his perimeter shooting, and his ball-handling? Can he contribute like De'Andre Hunter did in his redshirt freshman season, or his development going to follow a longer-term arc like that of Jay Huff?
Our guess is that Andrew Rohde will win that battle, giving Tony Bennett another capable ball-handling playmaker on the floor and a big guard capable of guarding multiple positions on the defensive end.
That leaves Virginia with a bench unit of Taine Murray, Leon Bond III, Jake Groves, Elijah Gertrude, Blake Buchanan, and Anthony Robinson. We've already touched briefly on Murray, Bond III, and Groves, each of whom figure to have significant roles for the Cavaliers next season and could even potentially earn themselves a starting spot if they play well enough.
Elijah Gertrude, a 6'4" four-star combo guard from Jersey City, New Jersey, has an incredibly high ceiling given his athleticism and ability to score at all three levels. Unfortunately, Gertrude missed his entire high school senior season with a torn ACL. He is apparently on track to return to the floor in time for his arrival at UVA with the other newcomers in mid-June, but it may take some time for Gertrude to get back up to speed, which could hamper his efforts to carve out a role for himself in his first season at Virginia.
Fellow 2023 recruit Blake Buchanan is in line to be the tallest player on UVA's roster next season at 6'11". That's the kind of size that the Cavaliers might find themselves needing to lean on as they learn to live without their former center tandem of Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro. Big men rarely see the floor early in their careers at Virginia, but given the makeup of the UVA roster this season, Buchanan has an opportunity to be the exception to that trend and earn quality minutes as a first year, if he can check the necessary boxes on the defensive end in Tony Bennett's system.
Anthony Robinson was the late addition to the 2023 recruiting class and gives the Cavaliers another big forward at 6'10", 238 pounds, but he will likely be more of a long-term development project and could be a candidate to redshirt in his first season.
There are still a few questions to be answered about the 2023-2024 Virginia men's basketball roster. Of course, the main question is whether Reece Beekman will return or not, a decision which will be made some time in the next two weeks. UVA currently has one open scholarship spot, two if Beekman remains in the NBA Draft. Virginia is saving at least one scholarship spot in the event that a class of 2024 recruit decides to reclassify to the class of 2023. That seems to be a possibility for five-star power forward Jarin Stevenson.
Tony Bennett has frequently kept a scholarship spot open in the past, and has a track record of rewarding walk-ons with a scholarship. That could be the case for senior walk-on forward Tristan How if the Cavaliers do not end up using their full allotment of 13 scholarships.
At any rate, Virginia's roster for the 2023-2024 season is nearly finalized. If Reece Beekman decides not to return, then the Cavaliers will have an entirely new starting five next season.
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