The Best and Worst Case Seeding Scenarios For UVA On Selection Sunday

Potential scenarios for the Cavaliers prior to Selection Sunday

Mar 3, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Jacari White (6) drives to the basket as Wake Forest Demon Deacons forward Tre'von Spillers (25) looks on in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia has one final game of the regular season coming up on Saturday when they host rival Virginia Tech. Virginia has 26 wins this season and is looking to add a few more before tournament time. Let’s take a look at the best and worst seeding scenarios for the Cavaliers before Selection Sunday next weekend. 

Best case: No.3 seed 

Mar 3, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Thijs de Ridder (28) drives to the basket as Wake Forest Demon Deacons forward Cooper Schwieger (13) defends in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

This would probably be the best spot for the Cavaliers to land, potentially, and they won’t have to win a bunch of games to do it. If they can get a win over their rival, Virginia Tech, on Saturday, that will give them their 27th win of the season and a 15th win in conference play. Then the Cavaliers have a chance to add some Quad 1 wins to their resume already with an impressive 7-3 record in such games. They are the No.2 team in the ACC tournament and could potentially see Louisville (No.15 NET), North Carolina (No.24 NET), Miami (No.29 NET), NC State (No.33 NET), Clemson (No.35 NET), and SMU (No.38 NET). It is a possibility that they can see any of these teams in the ACC tournament, and wins would help them tremendously. You also have the potential shot at the No.1 team in the nation, the Duke Blue Devils, in a potential title game. It would be a rematch after the Hoos, who can rewrite their wrong after being blown out at Cameron Indoor Stadium. An ACC Tournament championship and potentially 30 wins seem very enticing for a No.3 seed. 

Worst Case: No. 4 Seed 

Dec 22, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers center Johann Grunloh (17) dunks the ball against the American University Eagles in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The worst case for the Hoos is to lose on Saturday and be swept by its bitter rival, Virginia Tech, dropping two of its last three games. Then, they head into the tourney at 26-5 and lost in their first matchup in the quarterfinals. That would be disastrous for the Cavaliers and put them at 26-6. That is still good enough for a top-four seed, but it could determine where they potentially play in the NCAA tournament. First, they must handle business in their final game of the season and avoid losing twice to the Hokies this season. Head coach Ryan Odom talked about what needs to happen. 

"I mean a good response. Obviously, Virginia Tech's a good team. They're playing for positioning within the conference and obviously the NCAA Tournament as well. And so we had a three-overtime crazy game with them. And so we want to focus on doing our best and getting prepared for them. Sending our seniors off in a good way and then, you know, turning the page and getting ready for the conference tournament. We're excited about the opportunity coming up on Saturday,” said Odom. 

Regardless, the Hoos sit in a good spot and should get a top seed in the tournament. They can trend up and move higher if they go undefeated in the next few games and play at a high level.