NBA Championship Power Rankings: Eliminating One Team Every Week Until the Playoffs

At the start of each NBA season there are, realistically, about 10 teams who could make a run at a championship. By the time the All-Star break hits, those teams have made themselves known. After the break they really begin to separate themselves from the pack, and by the end of the year the true contenders are clear as day.

Last week Sports Illustrated kicked off the NBA’s stretch run to the playoffs by identifying those teams, ranking the top six seeds in each conference. Basketball history shows a team must finish that high in the standings to have any shot at the title. But the real favorites come from the top three seeds of each conference; nearly every NBA champion in the history of the league has been at least a three-seed or higher when they raised the Larry O’Brien.

With six weeks remaining until the playoffs begin and the championship push really kicks off, we want to narrow down the field and identify those true contenders. To do so, one team will be eliminated from each weekly edition of the championship power rankings. When the 2025–26 season officially closes on Apr. 13, the pool of true contenders who can be expected to seriously compete for the championship will be reflected in both the end-of-season standings and these power rankings.

Without further ado, here are our updated NBA championship power rankings as March begins, featuring the first eliminated team of the championship power rankings.

NBA championship power rankings

Eliminated teams

76ers

Last week’s ranking: 12

Why they’re eliminated: Tyrese Maxey has been a whirlwind since the All-Star break and is averaging nearly 30 points a night over his last seven games. But the 76ers are 3-4 in that stretch and looked comically outmatched in their last two contests against genuine contenders in the Celtics and Spurs. Some sliver of hope remains Joel Embiid could return for a healthy-ish stretch of basketball in the next few months but his extended absence since before the break is crushing that hope with each “OUT” designation.

Philly has been a longshot to make a title run for most of the year but any belief this team (with or without Embiid) could compete with the best must be dismissed after losing by 40 points to the Spurs at home.

11. Raptors

Scottie Barnes is the defensive leader of a physical Raptors team. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: 11
Record entering Mar. 4: 35–26

The title case: The Raptors are an elite defensive team with just enough perimeter scoring to be considered contenders. Toronto ranks just outside the top-five in defensive rating on the season. Offensively the Raptors do not thrive but are at least led by a true 20-ppg scorer in Brandon Ingram, who was named to his second All-Star team this season after a strong first half. The bones of a contending team are there but Toronto can only win so many games by trying to drag other teams into a rockfight with intense defensive pressure.

Why they’re still alive: That defensive pressure is really good! The Raps throttled the Spurs’ favorite actions in a close loss last week and bullied Victor Wembanyama into his worst offensive outing of the year. Losing to the backups-led Thunder wasn’t great, nor was the team’s fourth-quarter collapse against the Knicks in which they scored all of 13 points. But the nature of playoff basketball favors physical defensive teams and the Raptors are, if anything, just that.

10. Lakers

Last week’s ranking: 10
Record entering March 4: 37–24

The title case: Starpower. Most opponents cannot handle the full might of Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. The trio boast ludicrous shot-making and creation skills against any opponent.But it’s getting harder and harder to envision this Lakers team making any real noise in the playoffs. They are bad defensively, offering little resistance on the perimeter and in the paint. The three stars mentioned above are all poor defenders at this stage. As a team the Lakers are awful on the boards. Consequently, when Los Angeles isn’t shooting well, there’s no recourse. No other strength the roster can turn to to win games. An electric scoring stretch from any of their trio of superstars could win a postseason game or two but the Lakers will be hard-pressed to earn a series win, much less make a deep run.

Why they’re still alive: The Lakers probably did not enjoy this past week very much with discussion mostly centered around Deandre Ayton’s strange distaste for Clint Capela and a sideline tiff between coach JJ Redick and Dončić. Nevertheless Los Angeles’s sheer talent level outweighs that of its opponents most nights. That means the purple and gold cannot be dismissed outright. Not yet.

9. Cavaliers

James Harden is fighting through a fractured thumb to suit up for the Cavaliers. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: 8
Record entering March 4: 39–24

The title case: The Cavaliers have the talent to compete for a title, that’s for sure. The trade deadline brought Harden to Cleveland, where he now suits up alongside Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Between those three, the Cavs should check every box for championship contention. But historically speaking, teams who make this big of a roster change midseason do not win championships. For as much as the Cavaliers have going for them, there’s a lot going against them too.

Why they’re still alive: Despite the dreaded injury bug striking Cleveland once more the Cavaliers were able to stay afloat this week, with their efforts highlighted by two competitive games against the top dog Pistons. James Harden’s fractured thumb doesn’t seem to be a huge issue and the on-court product was generally respectable despite Donovan Mitchell missing four straight games with a groin injury. They dropped in these rankings due to strong showings from the rest of the contenders but what could have been a bad stretch for the Cavs wound up rather encouraging for their long-term outlook instead, although Jarrett Allen’s injury is a shadow cast over The Land.

8. Timberwolves

Last week’s ranking: 7
Record entering Mar. 4: 39–23

The title case: This Timberwolves roster is just as talented as last season with a better version of Anthony Edwards leading the way. Minnesota made a Western Conference finals run last season and haven’t suffered any notable losses to the roster, so it should be ready to make another this season. On some nights that seems all but certain. On others, not so much; the Wolves have played down to their opponent far too often this season. We’ve seen many teams deal with a similar problem after a deep playoff run and lock in once the postseason begins, so there’s no need to write the obituary on Minnesota’s season yet. But it’s difficult to place this team above serious title contenders given the inconsistent play.

Why they’re still alive: The Wolves have been very solid since coming back from the break and notched a big-time win over the Nuggets in primetime. Edwards has mostly played like a star and is finally learning how advantageous it is for his offense if he gets doubled. But warts like a 27-point loss to the 76ers serve as a stark reminder for how low the floor is for Minnesota when everyone doesn’t show up to play. Even Monday night’s excellent showing from Edwards came as the Wolves let a very bad Grizzlies team hang around for far too long. The potential is there, but how often will Minnesota reach it?

7. Rockets

Last week’s ranking: 6
Record entering Mar. 4: 38–22

The title case: The book has been out on the Rockets all year long and not much has really changed: Kevin Durant will score the ball, Alperen Şengün will help, and everyone else hits the boards while playing Ime Udoka’s signature brand of in-your-face defense. But Houston’s midseason struggles scoring the ball, especially late in the game, reflect the very real concern that there is no offensive plan against set defenses beyond hoping Durant can make something happen. The Rockets are talented but look to have a fatal flaw in that regard.

Why they’re still alive: The Rockets steadied out a bit over the last few games and took care of business against tanking teams while enjoying a close win over the rising Magic. It was mostly due to a stellar stretch from Durant so what’s written above about this Houston team remains unchanged. However, it did serve as a good reminder that no matter the Rockets’ flaws their version of good basketball is better than most other teams’.

6. Celtics

Last week’s ranking: 9
Record entering Mar. 4: 37–19

The title case: The Celtics are an exceptionally well-coached team led by a true star in Jaylen Brown. Boston has maintained its place as an elite offensive team while working extremely hard as a group to put forth strong defensive efforts every night despite boasting an unrecognizable roster from last year. There are cracks, though. The C’s defense is completely devoid of rim protection whenever starting center Neemias Queta sits and defensive rebounding has been a season-long issue that could rear its ugly head at very inopportune times come postseason. Jayson Tatum’s return is a massive swing factor here.

Why they’re still alive: As anticipation around Tatum’s potentially impending return mounts, the Celtics went on a hilarious heater over the last week. Boston posted the greatest scoring game of all time based on advanced metrics in a beat-down of the Nets and smacked the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor without Brown or Queta. It doesn’t mean the Celtics will be rolling into the playoffs as the most dangerous offense ever seen but it’s a reminder of the heights a Joe Mazzulla team can still reach on that end when shots are falling. More prevalent to the playoff race: their defense has been outstanding since the All-Star break and cranked it up a notch during this most recent stretch.

5. Nuggets

Nuggets vs. Jaz — The Nuggets needed a total team effort to beat the Jazz on Monday night. | Peter Creveling-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: 4
Record entering Mar. 4: 38–24

The title case: The Nuggets are enjoying another vintage Nikola Jokić season. As long as he’s healthy Denver has a shot. Jamal Murray enjoying his first All-Star campaign could lead to an even better postseason for an already-proven playoff performer. They just barely lost to the Thunder last year and have gotten better this season. The kicker for these Nuggets, more than any other team, is health. Jokić missed the first serious time of his career with a hyperextended knee and multiple key rotation players, including Aaron Gordon, are out with injuries. Denver needs everyone healthy to compete with the best of the best.

Why they’re still alive: With Jokić and Murray on the floor the Nuggets remain contenders. But it wasn’t a very strong week for Denver. The team enjoyed a solid win over the visiting Celtics and put up a decent fight against the Thunder in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s first game back but couldn’t get the win despite SGA sitting out overtime. Then they blew a big lead to the Timberwolves at home and came awfully close to dropping an easy one the following night against the Jazz, saved only by a ridiculous Murray outing. The strain the injuries are putting on the roster is beginning to show.

4. Knicks

Last week’s ranking: 5
Record entering Mar. 4: 40–22

The title case: The Knicks boast a very talented starting five that is quite difficult to stop offensively. Jalen Brunson is a proven No. 1 playoff option and the OG Anunoby-Mikal Bridges combo is a terror on the wing. New York is skilled on both ends and shouldn’t be quite as worn down entering the playoffs with Mike Brown in charge instead of Tom Thibodeau. However, it is still undeniable that Brunson and Towns are a brutal playoff pairing defensively and the Knicks in general have been disturbingly inconsistent for a legit contender. Given the highs and lows New York has shown this year there’s no team with a greater range of outcomes.

Why they’re still alive: The Knicks reminded everyone of just how good they can be by smoking the Spurs on national television to put an end to San Antonio’s win streak. Brunson posted an efficient game and was supported by his teammates in all manners, most impressively on the defensive end by none other than KAT. This is a tough team to beat when everyone is playing with the focus and energy they have recently.

3. Spurs

Devin Vassell scored 22 points for the Spurs in their annihilation of the 76ers on Tuesday. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: 2
Record entering Mar. 4: 44–17

The title case: Victor Wembanyama. That’s the start and end of the Spurs’ case to win a title way ahead of schedule this year. The third-year All-Star has been a force unto himself since coming into the league but figured out how to best apply his outrageous skillset to winning games this season. San Antonio’s supporting cast has proven ready to rise to the moment alongside him. This is a very good team with a hard-to-see ceiling due to the generational superstar manning the middle.This is a very unseasoned roster, however, and San Antonio is also middle-of-the-pack in regards to three-point shooting.

Why they’re still alive: The Spurs were one of three teams to hit the 40 wins before 20 losses mark, widely seen as a must-have milestone for any future NBA title holder, so they have earned recognition as one of the top title contenders remaining. But they did come back down to Earth recently after going undefeated throughout the month of February. The offense in particular played well below standards for a few games. That led to a short fall in these power rankings but things already started to even out in a Tuesday night demolition of the 76ers to cap off a long five-game road trip.

2. Pistons

Last week’s ranking: 3
Record entering Mar. 4: 45–15

The title case: The Pistons are an excellent, physical defensive squad with an MVP candidate leading the way offensively in Cade Cunningham. Jalen Duren’s All-Star leap has given the team a true centerpiece to man the middle on both ends. Above all the Pistons have simply been great all year long; no pretenders can hold the top spot in their conference for as long as Detroit has. But as seen in the team’s recent loss to the Spurs, shooting is a big problem. The Pistons are overly dependent on Cunningham to produce and his teammates haven’t proven capable of picking up the slack most of this year.

Why they’re still alive: The Pistons hit the 40 wins before 20 losses mark as well. Thus they belong among the elite and will stay there barring significant injury. The last few games for Detroit were more of the same: bludgeoning defense paired with great Cunningham performances leading to wins. He seems set on making a late MVP push and could very well get it done. Even if a stinker against the Cavs sans Mitchell is a reminder Cunningham is, indeed, capable of an off night.

1. Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned for the Thunder last week after an extended injury absence. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Last week’s rankings: 1
Record entering Mar. 4: 48–15

The title case: The Thunder have fallen off the historic pace they set to kick off the year but the defending champs remain favorites to take home another title. Despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams both missing games due to injury, OKC ranks first in defensive rating and fourth in offensive rating—the only team in the top-five of both categories. The depth has proven to be ridiculous with various backups taking turns winning games for coach Mark Daigneault. There’s little reason to doubt the Thunder’s ability to make another deep playoff run. Health remains a bit of a concern even with SGA’s recent return. There’s time to get healthy before the games begin to matter yet it’s still something to keep an eye on—especially if the Thunder enter the postseason having played only a few games with a fully healthy starting lineup.

Why they’re still alive: The Thunder won’t be falling off these rankings at any point. In the fine-tuning realm, Gilgeous-Alexander clearly still has to get his legs under him after a few inefficient performances upon returning from his abdominal strain, but there’s nothing to really worry about there. OKC’s eyes are rightfully pointed to the postseason.

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