Virginia Basketball vs. Florida State Game Preview, Score Prediction
After escaping Ann Arbor with a thrilling 70-68 victory over Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge to remain undefeated, No. 3 Virginia returns home for its first ACC game of the season. This is the definition of a trap game, as Florida State brings in an unimpressive 1-8 record, but a respectable performance against No. 5 Purdue this week suggests that the Seminoles aren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate. Losses to Florida State in recent years should be more than enough to prevent the Cavaliers from underestimating their opponent, but this game definitely has the potential to be a competitive matchup in the ACC opener for both teams.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Florida State, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.
Update: Follow the game with score updates, play-by-play, and live analysis here: Virginia vs. Florida State | Scores and Live Updates
Game Details
Who: Florida State Seminoles (1-8, 0-0 ACC) at Virginia Cavaliers (6-0, 0-0 ACC)
When: Saturday, December 3rd at 2pm ET
Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ESPN2
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
How to listen: SiriusXM 137 or 193, SXM App 955 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates
All-time series: Florida State leads 28-26
Last meeting: Florida State defeated Virginia 64-63 on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Matthew Cleveland on February 26th, 2022 in Charlottesville.
Opponent Scouting Report: Florida State
2021-2022: 17-14, 10-10 ACC
2022-2023: 1-8
Wins: vs. Mercer 81-72
Losses: vs. Stetson 74-83, at UCF 54-68, vs. Troy 72-79, vs. Florida 67-76, vs. Siena 63-80, vs. Stanford 60-70, vs. Nebraska 58-75, vs. Purdue 69-79
In the ACC, only Louisville has had a worse start to the season than Florida State, but FSU has a strong argument for having the most disappointing start to the year. The Seminoles were picked to finish 5th in the ACC men's basketball preseason poll, but they've won just one of their first nine games, including a list of bad defeats to Stetson and Troy and blowout losses to Siena and Nebraska. FSU turned in perhaps its best performance of the season in a ten-point loss to No. 5 Purdue on Wednesday and the Cavaliers are certainly hopeful that that result doesn't indicate that Florida State is beginning to turn the corner.
Some of the disappointment of the season has been out of the hands of Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles, as Brown transfer Jaylan Gainey suffered a season-ending knee injury before the season even began and highly-touted freshman Baba Miller is currently serving a 16-game suspension for a nitpicky NCAA violation for illegal benefits Miller received back in 2020 that had nothing to do with Florida State.
The losses of Gainey and Miller, who were expected to be valuable contributors, have severely hampered Leonard Hamilton's ability to run his classic deep rotation of up to ten players. Only eight Seminoles are averaging 10 or more minutes played per contest. But Florida State's main problems are three-point shooting and rebounding, as the Seminoles are shooting just 31.7% from beyond the arc as a team and they've lost the rebounding battle to their opponents by an average of eight rebounds per contest.
Still, Florida State's roster is talented as always and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Seminoles slowly pull things together as the season goes on. 6'5" guard Darin Green, a transfer from Central Florida, is the team's best three-point shooter at 41.8% and is also FSU's leading scorer at 12.7 points per game, but he is one of three guards averaging over 12 points per contest. Matthew Cleveland, the dramatic hero of Florida State's buzzer-beating win at Virginia last season, is back and averaging 12.3 points and 4.6 rebounds per game to start his sophomore campaign. Cleveland is similar to Michigan's Jett Howard in the sense that his 6'7" frame as a guard will be difficult for Virginia to defend. Expect Armaan Franklin, Reece Beekman, and Ryan Dunn to take turns with that assignment. Caleb Mills is that third scoring guard and, despite shooting just 16.7% from three on 18 attempts so far this season, Mills has still found a way to score 12.3 points per game.
Another 6'7" guard, Cam'Ron Fletcher is FSU's other three-point threat at 34.9% on the season. Naheem McLeod rounds out the normal starting five as the latest seven-footer to suit up for the Seminoles. The 7'4" sophomore center is averaging just 3.4 points per game and 3.6 rebounds per game, but he has already racked up 15 blocks as a capable rim protector.
Jalen Warley (4.4 ppg) comes off the bench as the team's best passer with 32 assists and 6'10 forward Cameron Corhen (6.4 ppg) gives the Seminoles some depth in the front court, but not nearly to the level to which FSU is accustomed.
Game Notes
- Virginia has won its ACC opener in each of the last 14 seasons and UVA is 13-0 in ACC openers under Tony Bennett, despite being 34-35 all-time in ACC openers.
- Florida State holds a 28-26 advantage in the all-time series with Virginia, but the Cavaliers are 16-10 against the Seminoles in games played in Charlottesville.
- FSU has won four of the last five meetings, but UVA is 5-2 in the last seven games in Charlottesville.
- Virginia is 6-0 for the first time since the 2019-2020 season
- UVA is ranked No. 3 in the AP poll, the highest ranking for the team since the 2018-2019 season.
Prediction
Although FSU enters this game with a lowly 1-8 record, Virginia should have no problem "getting up" for this game given the struggles the Cavaliers have had against the Seminoles in years past. Florida State has won four of the last five meetings with UVA and six of the last nine, including last year's buzzer-beater by Matthew Cleveland that handed Virginia a very painful senior day loss. UVA has the edge in most of the key categories in this matchup, so as long as the Cavaliers don't make the mistake of overlooking the Seminoles, they should have this one in hand and Virginia should win its ACC opener for the 15th-consecutive season.
Score Prediction: Florida State 60, Virginia 72
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