Virginia Basketball vs. Louisville Game Preview, Score Prediction

Virginia hosts Louisville in the regular season finale on Saturday in Charlottesville with a lot at stake. The Cavaliers can clinch a share of the ACC regular season title and lock themselves into the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament with a win, but they'll have to take care of business against a Cardinals' squad that gave UVA plenty of trouble when these two teams met just a few weeks ago in Louisville.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Louisville, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (22-6, 14-5 ACC) vs. Louisville Cardinals (4-26, 2-17 ACC)

When: Saturday, March 4th at 2pm

Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN2

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 136 or 194, SXM App 956 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Virginia leads 21-5

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Louisville 61-58 on February 15th, 2023 in Louisville.

Opponent Scouting Report: Louisville

2022-2023: 4-26, 2-17 ACC
Notable results: Western Kentucky 94-83 W, Florida A&M 61-55 W, NC State 76-64 L, Syracuse 79-69 L, Wake Forest 80-72 L, Georgia Tech 68-58 W, Florida State 81-78 L, at Miami 93-85 L, Virginia 61-58 L, Clemson 83-73 W

It's difficult to imagine a more challenging season for a first year head coach than the one Kenny Payne is currently having at Louisville. Bright moments have been few and far between as the Cardinals have won just four games while losing 26. Louisville is 309th in the NET rankings with an 0-10 record in Quad 1, 1-5 in Quad 2, 0-7 in Quad 3, and 3-4 in Quad 4. The Cardinals are ranked 285th on KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks 263rd and an adjusted defensive efficiency that ranks 289th. Through the final stretch of the regular season, Kenny Payne has grown more frustrated in his press conferences with indications that he has lost the Louisville locker room.

And yet, the Cardinals have shown several times this season that they are capable of playing good basketball and hanging with some of the better teams in the ACC. Louisville has picked up two ACC wins - one against Georgia Tech and a stunner against Clemson. Six of Louisville's ACC losses have come by 10 points or less, including back-to-back games in mid-February in which the Cardinals lost by eight points at Miami and by just three points to Virginia. The upset win over Clemson immediately followed those solid performances against Miami and Virginia, showing that perhaps the Cardinals were ready to turn the corner. Since then, however, it's been back to the previously scheduled rough sledding for Louisville, losing at Duke by 17, at Georgia Tech by 16, and against Virginia Tech by 17.

Now, the Cardinals travel to Charlottesville with nothing to lose as they conclude the regular season against the Cavaliers, who have all the pressure in this game as they try to capitalize on the opportunity to clinch an ACC regular season title. At the very least, Louisville can look to the previous meeting between these two teams as evidence that the Cardinals are fully capable of beating the Cavaliers.

Many saw Virginia's close-call 61-58 win at Louisville on February 15th as the start of a slump for UVA that lasted for the next four games, although the Cavaliers are certainly hopeful that that came to an end with their solid win over Clemson on Tuesday. Many of Virginia's bad habits showed up in the first meeting with Louisville. UVA went 9/16 (56.3%) from the free throw line. Early defensive lapses allowed Louisville to build a 26-17 first-half lead. And after Virginia came back and appeared to have taken control, the Cavaliers endured a couple of costly scoring droughts that kept the Cardinals in the game. UVA made just two shots in the final five minutes and El Ellis powered Louisville back to within three points in the final minute, forcing Virginia to make a big defensive stop on the last possession to seal the win against one of the worst teams in college basketball.

If the Cavaliers have truly emerged from their slump, then they should have little issue taking care of business against Louisville on Saturday. But if any of UVA's bad habits linger or return, then the Cardinals have the talent to make this a game.

El Ellis continues to run the show on the offensive end as the only Louisville player averaging in double figures. The 6'3" senior guard averages 17.8 points and 4.4 assists per game and he has been on a tear over the last few weeks, averaging 22 points per contest over the last six games. A high volume shooter, Ellis is shooting 41.8% from the floor and 32.4% from three.

Scoring options beyond El Ellis are limited and inconsistent for the Cardinals. Redshirt freshman Mike James joins Ellis in the back court and averages 9.7 points per game. The 6'5" guard is a slightly better three-point shooter at 34.4% from beyond the arc.

Louisville's best three-point shooter is 6'9" forward Jae'Lyn Withers, who is shooting 42.6% from three-point range. The redshirt junior is averaging 9.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. 6'10" sophomore Brandon Huntley-Hatfield occupies the center spot, averaging 5.5 rebounds and 6.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the floor. JJ Traynor, a 6'8" junior forward rounds out the starting five at 6.7 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the floor. Traynor can also stretch the floor a little bit at 32.4% from three.

Louisville's inconsistent depth extends to the bench, where only Kamari Lands and Sydney Curry get meaningful minutes. Hercy Miller and Roosevelt Wheeler occasionally get playing time, but Louisville mostly relies on its top seven to get most of the minutes.

Game Notes

Virginia holds a 21-5 all-time record against Louisville in the series that dates back to the 1923-1924 season.
UVA has won six games in a row against Louisville and 15 of the last 16 meetings.
Virginia is 9-1 against Louisville in Charlottesville and 7-0 at John Paul Jones Arena.
UVA is 16-2 against Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2013.
Virginia is 14-1 at home this season and 9-0 in ACC home games.
Virginia is tied for 1st in the ACC standings with Miami and Pittsburgh at 14-5 and Louisville is 15th at 2-17.

What's at Stake

Virginia clinches a share of the ACC regular season title with a win over Louisville, as the Cavaliers will be guaranteed to finish in a tie with the winner of the Pittsburgh/Miami game at 15-5 in ACC play. That would be Virginia's 11th ACC regular season title in program history and sixth in the last ten seasons (2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021).

A Virginia win also locks the Cavaliers into the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament. If UVA loses to Louisville on Saturday, things get drastically more complicated, as that would trigger eight possible scenarios depending on what Pittsburgh, Miami, Duke, and Clemson do in their games. Six of those eight scenarios give Virginia the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament, while one still gives UVA the No. 2 seed and one cursed scenario drops the Cavaliers down to the No. 4 seed. Click here to see a full breakdown of Virginia's ACC Tournament seeding scenarios.

Of course, Virginia can avoid all of the complicated seeding scenarios with a win over Louisville on Saturday, locking UVA into the No. 2 seed and clinching the 2023 ACC regular season title.

Prediction

Saturday's game will go a long way towards showing if Virginia has actually emerged from its four-game slump. UVA showed some very positive signs in what was a solid win over a good Clemson team on Tuesday. If the Cavaliers can follow that up with a convincing victory over Louisville on Saturday, then they will build some serious momentum heading into next week's ACC Tournament. On a day that Virginia honors its graduating seniors, UVA delivers that strong performance.

Score prediction: Louisville 59, Virginia 74

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