Virginia Upset Chances: Path to Victory Against TCU

The Virginia Cavaliers have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes 83-75, but the true test has yet to come. The Hoos are now gearing up to face the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday night, and between TCU's intimidating size, defensive prowess and offensive power in their starting lineup, coming out on top would only come after a hard-fought battle for the Cavaliers.

Starting Five Needs Pressure

TCU Horned Frogs Clara Silva dribbling a basketball while being guarded by Kansas State Wildcats Tess Heal. — TCU Horned Frogs center Clara Silva and Kansas State Wildcats guard Tess Heal | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Marta Suarez, Clara Silva, Donovyn Hunter, Taylor Bigby and Olivia Miles are the key starters for the Horned Frogs, and this squad ranks as the fifth-highest scoring starting lineup in women's basketball right now. With a combined 62.2 points per game, it's worth pressuring them early on.

However, Miles is the leading scorer for TCU, averaging 19.4 points per game. Along the way, she logs 6.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game, leading her program in both statistical categories. Suarez trails Miles in points (16.8), followed by Hunter in third (10.6). It's worth noting that Miles and Suarez are the only duo on the same team with an average of at least 15.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and two assists.

If the Hoos want any shot at defeating the Horned Frogs and advancing to the Elite Eight, ending their brutal drought, they must be willing to pressure TCU's starting lineup. But stopping Miles and Suarez is the key here.

UVA’s Defense and Kymora Johnson’s Performance Will Be Defining Factor

Virginia Cavaliers Kymora Johnson celebrating during a game — Virginia Cavaliers guard Kymora Johnson | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Considering the Horned Frogs' towering height and their well-rounded play, the Cavaliers are going to rely heavily on their defensive unit. TCU may have a notable size advantage, but this alone will not grant them a victory against Virginia.

Ultimately, the way in which UVA's defense holds up to the Horned Frogs will be a determining factor in how the game is likely to end.

Fortunately, the Cavaliers are in good company with Kymora Johnson on the court. This season, she is averaging 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.1 steals per game, while shooting 41.3% from the floor. She doesn't come with a daunting frame—she's only 5'7"—but this has not stopped her from making an impressive name for herself.

To be candid, it will take a massive performance from Johnson for the Hoos to take a victory. Bottom line, she is a major game-changer for Virginia and holds a lot of power in her hands, particularly at this point in the NCAA Tournament.

At first glance, TCU seems to have an edge over UVA, but don't rule out an upset just yet.