Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

We're down to the final 16 teams in contention for the men's college basketball national championship, which means we have 15 games left to bet on.

I've been placing a bet on a side or total throughout the entire tournament, and while the picks haven't been red-hot, it's all about how you finish. Or, at least, that's what I'm telling myself.

I have my picks for Thursday's four Sweet 16 games locked in, so let's dive into them.

March Madness Best Bets for Every Sweet 16 Game on Thursday

Texas vs. Purdue Prediction

These two teams are a lot more similar than their seeding would make you think. Both teams rank inside the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage, while also ranking outside the top 150 in defensive efficiency. To be fair, Purdue is a better version of Texas, ranking ahead of the Longhorns in both those categories.

With that being said, the gap between the metrics isn't wide enough to justify the 7-point spread. I've been low on this Purdue team for a while, based on how low the Boilermakers rank in defensive numbers. It's also important to note that Texas is playing its best basketball it has played all season, which includes keeping its opponents to shooting just 42.3% over its last three games.

I'm going to take the points with the Longhorns in hopes this game comes down to the wire.

Pick: Texas +7.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Iowa vs. Nebraska Prediction

Nebraska's numbers have been ultra-impressive this season, ranking 27th in effective field goal percentage and 15th in defensive efficiency. Iowa's offensive numbers are even better, coming in at 15th in eFG%, but the Hawkeyes' defense comes in at 85th in efficiency.

If Iowa wants to win this game, they have to find a way to defend the three-point shot of Nebraska. The Hawkeyes currently rank just 165th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, ahead of the Sweet 16.

There's not a ton to separate these two teams, but there's no denying that Nebraska has the more impressive defensive numbers. I think this could also be a sell high spot on Iowa after they pulled off the unlikely upset against Florida.

I'll back the Cornhuskers as short favorites.

Pick: Nebraska -1.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Arkansas vs. Arizona Prediction

Let's try our best not to overreact to Arkansas being in the Sweet 16. They had a relatively easy path to win the SEC Championship, squeaking by both Oklahoma and Ole Miss by just three points before beating Vanderbilt in the final, completely avoiding the Florida Gators. Then, in the NCAA Tournament, they had the easiest path to the Sweet 16, getting to face a 13-seed and a 12-seed in the first two rounds.

The Arizona Wildcats are no joke and will be by far the Razorbacks' biggest challenge. There's a case to be made that Arizona is the best team in the country, and they have the interior defense to completely shut down the Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks rank 50th in the country in two-point shot rate. Now, they have to face an Arizona defense that ranks second in the country in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 43.7% from two-point range.

Arizona also mainly shoots two-point shots, ranking third in two-point shot rate, and now they get to face an Arkansas team that ranks 278th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 54% from two-point range.

This is a nightmare matchup for Arkansas.

Pick: Arizona -7.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Illinois vs. Houston Prediction

The key to beating Illinois is stopping the 3-ball. The Fighting Illini rank 15th in the country in 3-point shot rate, with 50.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. Luckily for them, the perimeter of the Houston defense is its weak point, if there is one. The Cougars rank 44th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 31.4% from beyond the arc.

The most fascinating thing about this matchup is that both teams play an extremely fundamental and disciplined style of basketball, evidenced by the fact that they rank first and second in effective possession ratio. That's going to work against Houston, as the Cougars rely on winning the rebounding and turnover battle against their opponents to overcome the fact that they rank 142nd in effective field goal percentage.

Illinois can match them in those areas, while also boasting much better shooting numbers, ranking 34th in eFG%.

This is my favorite upset pick of the week.

Pick: Illinois +140 via Caesars

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