Bowl game projections for Virginia football: Week two edition, with Playoff potential

Where do analysts predict the Cavaliers to play?

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers safety Corey Costner (18) celebrates an interception in the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week two has arrived — and with it, so have narratives and early ACC standings. Here are updated bowl game projections for Virginia football ahead of game two against Norfolk State.

Where do national outlets have the Cavaliers this week?

• On3: College Football Playoff at No. 6 Georgia 
• ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Holiday Bowl vs. Washington
• ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Holiday Bowl vs. Utah
• CBS: Holiday Bowl vs. Utah

After No. 24 Louisville burst onto the scene and nearly upset No. 9 Ole Miss, pundits have quickly praised the Cardinals — even going as far as to move them up in their rankings despite a loss. 

Louisville’s excitement and SMU’s survival at Florida State have led to ESPN and CBS analysts bumping Virginia down a spot to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. It is still a top-tier bowl game, just a small step below previous projects of the Pop-Tarts Bowl or Gator Bowl.

Then there is On3’s Andy Staples, who did the exact opposite and projected the Cavaliers to reach the CFP. It is not as crazy as some might think. Virginia has a manageable schedule and recently obliterated NC State — one of the best teams on its schedule.

My projection: College Football Playoff at No. 6 Texas 

The updated ESPN Football Power Index has Virginia going 10-2, but the second loss is projected at Virginia Tech, in a game where the Cavaliers are only underdogs by 0.6%. I predict Virginia wins in Blacksburg, Va. and finishes the season with an 11-1 record. That would be the most wins in a regular season in program history, but the "1" is just as important as the "11."

This is where things get complicated.

If the Cavaliers go 11-1 but the loss comes at ranked SMU, is their resume strong enough to reach the CFP — especially if they lose the conference championship game to Miami? Virginia does not have control over the fact it doesn’t play the Hurricanes, Louisville, Pitt, Clemson or Georgia Tech.

The Cavaliers also have no control over what happens after slash before they play any team. An 11-1 record from a Power Four conference should be enough to earn an at-large CFP bid. 

If (and that is a giant if) Virginia reaches the CFP, a likely outcome would be facing one of the stacked SEC teams. It would not be impossible for Texas to snatch the No. 6 seed as one of the handful of SEC programs to reach the CFP.