Everything You Need to Know About No. 16 Virginia's Road Test vs. North Carolina

The 16th-ranked Cavaliers head into Chapel Hill to take on a Tar Heels team that has lost their last three games.

Oct 18, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker James Jackson (1) celebrates after a safety against the Washington State Cougars in the final minutes of the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

No. 16 Virginia looks to win their sixth game in a row when the Hoo's take on North Carolina in a road ACC matchup. UVA's last and only loss came in Week Two, when they fell to North Carolina State in Raleigh. That game did not count towards Virginia's ACC record so their only road ACC matchup so far this season resulted in a 30-27 win at Louisville.

Let's take a look at everything you need to know about UVA's conference matchup against the Tar Heels in Week Nine.

QB Fiasco

Sep 20, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) warms up before the game against the UCF Knights at the Bounce House Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

UNC's issues at quarterback have persisted through the 2025 season, thus far. Starter Gio Lopez was evidently not worth the hype as a South Alabama transfer. Lopez is completing under 60% of his passes, throwing three touchdowns to three interceptions. The sophomore has also been extremely ineffective on the ground, where he usually dominates. Lopez is averaging just over two yards per rush in 2025, compared to his 5.6 average from last season.

Backup Max Johnson has gotten some time behind center when Lopez has looked his worst. Johnson played in three blowout losses against TCU, UCF and Clemson. The senior signal caller has completed 64% of his passes, tossing two scores and no interceptions.

Playoff Implications

The championship trophy sits on the stage during the Ohio State Buckeyes College Football Playoff National Championship celebration at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Jan. 26, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Taking a look at ESPN's FPI rankings, UVA has the third highest odds to win the ACC after No. 9 Miami and No. 7 Georgia Tech. The Hoo's also have the third highest odds to make the college playoffs behind the two same teams. FPI believes UVA is really up there with the best of the best in the ACC, even better than Duke, who just fell to Georgia Tech.

Focusing on those two teams ahead of Virginia, we have seen Miami fall to an inferior opponent already in Louisville. The only game that stands out on their remaining schedule is SMU. The Mustangs just handled Clemson fairly easily on the road and they have yet to lose an ACC game in the two seasons in the conference.

Georgia Tech's most dangerous remaining opponent is Georgia and that is technically a home game for the Yellow Jackets. However, ESPN FPI is giving Georgia a major edge in the final matchup of the regular season. According to ESPN, the Bulldogs have an 80% chance to defeat GT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

South's Oldest Rivalry

There is deep history between these two programs. The game is commonly referred to as the South's Oldest Rivalry. This year's game marks the 130th meeting between the Tar Heels and the Cavaliers.

UNC has the edge over UVA, winning 67 of the 130 games. Virginia has defeated North Carolina 58 times and there have been four ties. The last time Virginia won the South's Oldest Rivalry as a ranked team was back in 2004, when they defeated UNC, 56-24.

Then-No. 15 Virginia scored seven touchdowns, all of them coming on the ground. Running back Wali Lundy rushed for three. Running back Alvin Pearman added two of his own. Running back Michael Johnson and fullback Jason Snelling also scored one each. Virginia threw a total of only 16 passes, using four quarterbacks.