Analytics Show Virginia's Surprisingly Small Chance At Earning A No.1 Seed In The NCAA Tournament

Can Virginia find a way to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Feb 3, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Chance Mallory (2) talks with head coach Ryan Odom in the second half against the Pittsburgh Panthers at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images | Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are 22-3, are on a six game winning streak, and are the clear No. 2 team in the ACC in the standings, but they are not getting the kind of love that a team with that kind of profile usually gets. They sit at No. 14 in the AP Poll and have fallen in predictive analytics such as the NCAA's NET Rankings and KenPom analytics. They are going to be favored in all but one game down the stretch of the season and typically, that would be generating more buzz for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

That is not the case, though. ESPN's Joe Lunardi does not have UVA as a top 16 seed in his latest bracketolog,y and according to teamrankings.com, the Cavaliers have only a 1% chance to earn a No. 1 seed in the tournament. They have a 10.4% chance to be a No. 2 seed, a 22.9% chance to be a No. 3 seed, and the most likely outcome is the Cavaliers land as a No. 4 seed.

Is that fair?

While the odds might be low, there is a better path than you might think for Virginia getting in the mix and earning a No. 1 seed.

First of all, they have to win out in the regular season, which would include going to Durham and beating Duke, the No. 3 team in the country. Win that game and the other games in the regular season and that would give the Cavaliers a regular season ACC Championship and the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. If they can do that and advance to the ACC Tournament Championship, racking up two more quality wins along the way, I think they are going to have a really good case for a No. 1 seed.

That is easier said than done though and the competition for the No.1 seeds this season is tough. Michigan is moving closer and closer to being a lock, Arizona still has a great case despite losing two games this past week, and Houston, Iowa State, UConn, and others are in the mix. For UVA to even be mentioned with these teams, they are going to have to win the remainder of their games and then have a good showing in the ACC Tournament.

Why bring this up? I don't think Virginia is getting enough respect for the season they are having under Ryan Odom, and they are not getting enough buzz for the kind of team they have.

Virginia's next game up is a road game tomorrow night at Georgia Tech and then they have a chance to add a nice win to their resume at home against Miami.