College Football Bowl Projections: Virginia Football Absent From ESPN's Initial Projections For 2025

Nov 23, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott (right) runs onto the field with players prior to their game against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

2025 is going to be a big season for Tony Elliott and Virginia. The Cavaliers have added a massive transfer portal class, getting big additions in the second, the defensive line, the wide receiver group, and of course, quarterback. After not making a bowl game in Elliott's first three seasons, UVA is primed to return to the postseason for the first time since 2019.

It is not a given, though, and despite the big additions in the portal and what most consider to be the easiest schedule in the power four, most national analysts are still predicting Virginia to finish near the bottom of the ACC, as hey were picked to finish 14th in the preseason ACC Media Poll.

In the first bowl projections ahead of the 2025 season, ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura are leaving out the Cavaliers, which would not be good news for Elliott. He is on the hot seat entering the season and has arguably the easiest schedule in the country. A bowl game should be the bare minimum this season.

The Schedule Is Favorable

Nov 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

In a ranking of ACC schedules, CBS Sports Chip Patterson ranked UVA's as the easiest in the conference, while Syracuse has the toughest:

"A busy offseason aligns with one of the more favorable schedules to set up what could be coach Tony Elliot's long-awaited breakthrough with the program. Virginia brings in 31 players from the portal (it only took 22 total over the previous two offseasons) and faces a schedule that lacks Clemson, Miami, and SMU. The toughest nonconference game is actually against an ACC peer in NC State, so if Virginia can hold serve as a favorite, it might need only one or two upsets to be bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021."

ESPN's FPI ranked UVA's schedule as the easiest in the power four.

FPI has Virginia with the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. Wake Forest, Houston, BYU, and Arizona make up the rest of the weakest Power Four schedules in the country.

Here is how Virginia's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (100th)

Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 57)

Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)

Sept. 20th- Stanford (64th)

Sept. 26th- Florida State (48th)

Oct. 4th- at Louisville (41st)

Oct. 18th- Washington State (98th)

Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (51st)

Nov. 1st- at Cal (60th)

Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (89th)

Nov. 15th- at Duke (54th)

Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (26th)

As you can see, this is a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season and don't face a projected top 25 opponent according to FPI. I also don't think Virginia Tech is the 26th best team in the country and the 4th best in the ACC. I don't expect this team to be in the ACC Championship, but anything less than a bowl appearance is going to be disappointing for a team that has this kind of schedule and brought in the amount of experienced transfers that they did. It is a big season in Charlottesville for Tony Elliott.