ESPN FPI Rankings: Where did UVA Land In Latest Update?

ESPN's FPI dropped Virginia Football in their latest update

Oct 12, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott (center) looks on fromt the field during a stoppage in play against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

College football programs are always searching for bulletin board material, and there will be no shortage of it for the University of Virginia. The Cavaliers, who have not been to the postseason under head coach Tony Elliott, are not being given much of a chance to make it this season, despite having arguably the easiest schedule in the Power four.

However, UV took a slight dip in the latest FPI (Football Power Index) Rankings From ESPN. At the start of the summer, Virginia was 63rd in FPI, but now they are 68th. That is 15th in the ACC, in front of only California and Wake Forest. The Cavaliers were even behind Stanford, who was one spot ahead at 67.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Glancing At the ACC

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Xavier Brown (0) runs on his way to scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Clemson (16th overall)

2. Miami (No. 17)

3. SMU (No. 19)

4. Virginia Tech (No.31)

5. Louisville (No. 38)

6. Georgia Tech (No. 39)

7. Duke (No. 47)

8. Boston College (No. 55)

9. Pittsburgh (No. 57)

10. NC State (No. 58)

11. North Carolina (No. 59)

12. Syracuse (No. 63)

13. Florida State (No. 65)

14. Stanford (No. 67)

15. Virginia (No. 68)

16. California (No. 69)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (No. 101)

Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 58)

Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)

Sept. 20th- Stanford (67th)

Sept. 26th- Florida State (65th)

Oct. 4th- at Louisville (No. 38)

Oct. 18th- Washington State (No. 100)

Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (No. 59)

Nov. 1st- at Cal (No. 69)

Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (No. 89)

Nov. 15th- at Duke (No. 47)

Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (No. 31)

Schedule is a Huge Opportunity

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

In a ranking of ACC schedules, CBS Sports Chip Patterson ranked UVA's as the easiest in the conference, while Syracuse has the toughest:

"A busy offseason aligns with one of the more favorable schedules to set up what could be coach Tony Elliot's long-awaited breakthrough with the program. Virginia brings in 31 players from the portal (it only took 22 total over the previous two offseasons) and faces a schedule that lacks Clemson, Miami, and SMU. The toughest nonconference game is actually against an ACC peer in NC State, so if Virginia can hold serve as a favorite, it might need only one or two upsets to be bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021."

According to FPI, UVA will not face an opponent in the top 30. This is the perfect schedule to make a bowl appearance, but the Cavaliers have to step up and take it.