ESPN's FPI Forecast For Virginia Does Not Change Much Despite Loss to NC State

The Virginia Cavaliers appeared to have a lot of momentum as a program heading into last week's game vs NC State. While they had only beaten Coastal Carolina, UVA looked impressive and they had a real shot to win in Raleigh.

They did not win though, despite putting up over 500 yards of offense. Crucial red zone mistakes killed any momentum this team had and they dropped to 1-1. While the schedule is still favorable and the game against the Wolfpack did not count in the conference standings, it felt like a missed opportunity.

After the first weekend, ESPN's FPI projected UVA to finish 9-3. How much did the loss to NC State change that projection?

Game 3 vs William & Mary- FPI gives Virginia a 97% chance to win (No change from week two)

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver TyLyric Coleman (17) clutches his hand during the second half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

There has not been any change in the outlook for this game. UVA is heavily favored and should win easily this weekend.

Game 4 vs Stanford- FPI gives Virginia an 82% chance to win this game (81% last week)

Again, not much change in this forecast. Stanford has looked like the worst team in the entire power four conferences. The Cavaliers get this game at home and should win comfortably against this team.

Game 5 vs Florida State- FPI gives Florida State a 61% chance to win this game (50% last week)

This is going to be a huge game for both programs. Florida State has already secured a big win over Alabama to start the season and faces rival Miami after they play Virginia. Can they survive the Friday night trip to Charlottesville? This would be the biggest win of the Tony Elliott era, but FPI thinks FSU gets the win.

Game 6 vs Louisville- FPI gives Louisville a 63% chance to win this game (No change since last week)

Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) drops back while looking to pass in the first half. The Cards' beat the visiting Dukes 28-14 Friday September 5, 2025 at L&N Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is still going to be a tough game for UVA to win, even if Louisville did not look great against James Madison last weekend. Can Virginia find a way to get a win on the road in a tough atmosphere?

Game 7 vs Washington State- FPI gives Virginia an 86% chance to win this game (81% last week)

Washington State looks miserable to start this season and the Cavaliers get this game at home. This is another game that should be won comfortably.

Game 8 vs North Carolina- FPI gives Virginia a 70% chance to win this game (73% last week)

UVA's odds decreased slightly after the Tar Heels beat Charlotte and the Cavaliers lost to NC State. FPI still likes Virginia in this game and North Carolina has a lot to prove still.

Game 9 vs California- FPI gives Cal a 54% chance to win this game (57% last week)

Cal looked a little shaky over the weekend, but they still got the 2-0 start and appear to be better than expected this season. This will be a tough road test for Virginia.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest- FPI gives Virginia an 86% chance to win this game (No change since last week)

Chandler Morris Virgini — Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) runs with the football during the first half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Wake Forest is 2-0, but they have not looked great so far this season. Virginia should win this game as long as they are healthy at this point in the year.

Game 11 vs Duke- FPI gives Virginia a 55% chance to win this game (Duke had a 57% chance last week)

Duke had a big opportunity last week against Illinois, but they lost 45-19. The Blue Devils still possess some talent and they would be a very tough team for Virginia to beat.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech- FPI gives Virginia a 66% chance to win this game (51% last week)

It has not been a good two weeks to start the season for Virginia Tech. They gave up 34 unanswered points in last week's loss to Vanderbilt and the heat has turned all the way up on Brent Pry. This would be Tony Elliott's first win over the Hokies.

FPI's Projected record: 8-4, 5-3 ACC