How's this for openers? Cavaliers' first game will influence their whole season

August Matchup with N.C. State will have huge repercussions for Virginia's postseason hopes.

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) runs with the football to make a touchdown during the first half of the game against Virginia Cavaliers at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Season openers seem to trigger greater overreaction than any other game on a team's schedule. Win, and the fan base is giddy. Lose, and they're calling for the coach's head.

And in major college football, Power 4 Conference schools often start out with an overmatched opponent. It's worth remembering that Virginia beat Richmond to begin Tony Elliott's first and third seasons in charge--and finished with a losing record each time.

That said, it's almost impossible to overstate just how critical the Cavaliers' opener with N.C. State this Saturday is to their postseason ambitions. Win, and everything remains in play for a veteran squad aiming for its first College Football Playoff appearance.

Lose, and it'll be a season-long uphill battle just to make it back to the ACC championship game, let alone the CFP, with almost no margin for error.

Think of all the variables that sit in Virginia's favor at the moment.

Big Opener

Jul 15, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia head coach Tony Elliott speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

College football's most experienced roster. Unprecedented positional depth. Coaching staff stability. And a favorable schedule that includes seven home games -- thanks to the opener being moved from Brazil to Charlottesville -- and few of the ACC's toughest opponents. Miami, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh are nowhere to be seen.

That opens the door for the Cavaliers to approach, if not improve on, last season's school-record 11 victories and to return to Charlotte in December for the ACC final. But with a schedule that's ranked 65th-hardest in the nation by ESPN.com, Virginia has few chances to make a statement win.

The opener counts as one. If the Cavaliers can't beat the Wolfpack at home, in front of what should be a near-capacity crowd, the national critics can resume their belief that last season was more of a fluke than a harbinger.

After all, Virginia has posted back-to-back winning seasons just once (2018-19) in the past two decades. The Cavs have lost their last four meetings with N.C. State, including last year's 35-31 defeat in Raleigh. They had no answer that day for Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey, who had a touchdown pass and two scoring runs.

That may help explain why Virginia was picked to finish a modest sixth in the ACC by media members who cover the conference and began the season unranked in both major polls. Among the 69-person Associated Press panel, the Cavaliers got exactly one 25th-place vote.

So adopting the Rodney Dangerfield "no respect" attitude could serve as motivation for the Cavaliers, but they still need to prove themselves.

After last season's debacle that allowed Duke to reach the title game, the ACC implemented a new tiebreaker system that effectively allows conference officials to pick the most marketable team. Virginia isn't exactly a household name in football, so if the Cavaliers drop their opener, they may have to win their final 11 games just to be considered for the ACC final or the CFP.

That would mean winning at SMU on Oct. 17 and fending off solid opponents like Florida State, California, and Virginia Tech, who will be eager to avenge losses to Virginia last year. All are certainly achievable, but easier said than done.

And even that might not be enough. It's hard to imagine Virginia getting into the CFP or winning an ACC championship tiebreaker with more than one loss -- unless it beats SMU and several other teams finish with two league defeats.

And we haven't yet mentioned any psychological repercussions that could result from an 0-1 start in league play. The Cavaliers have big ambitions, and although Elliott (like all coaches) preaches going 1-0 each week, they've been pointing to their opportunity to make a big early impression.

They'd have nearly two weeks to dwell on an opening loss before facing Norfolk State on Sept. 13 and would have to wait more than a month before their next ACC game (Oct. 13) at FSU. That's a challenge even for a mature team.

The simplest solution is for Virginia to come out strong, make a statement against the Wolfpack and then try to start building from there. If they don't, as they say at Kalshi, all bets are off.