Matchup Preview and Final Score Prediction for Virginia at Florida State

Virginia hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2011. On Saturday, it goes in as the favorite against a Florida State team that makes big plays and gives them up just as easily.

Virginia takes the field at Scott Stadium. | Photo by Aaron Snyder

Delaware came into Scott Stadium with the No. 11 passing offense in the country. It left with 160 total yards and three points.

That's the fewest yards a Virginia opponent has gained since VMI in 2013, and it is a good step to get the season back on track after Charlotte. Now comes the part of the schedule that decides whether this team gets back to the ACC title game: a road trip to a Doak Campbell, where Virginia is 1-9 all-time.

The only win in Tallahassee was 14-13 in 2011. The Cavaliers haven't played there since 2014, and Da'Shawn Martin is the only player on the roster who has played a game at Doak Campbell. That came last year with Kent State, when he caught a 75-yard touchdown.

"Now we're into the heart of our schedule, it's ACC play," Tony Elliott said after the Delaware win. "This group has a passion and a desire to work their way and earn their way back to Charlotte, and it starts with a trip down to Tallahassee."

It's also a rematch of last year's 46-38 double-overtime game in Charlottesville, which ended with fans storming the field in one of the greatest field rushes of CFB history. This time neither team is ranked, which has happened only three times in 21 meetings.

Virginia is 3-1 and 1-0 in the ACC. Florida State is 2-2 and 0-1 after a 27-24 home loss to SMU and a 50-36 loss at Alabama, and it beat Central Arkansas 34-7 last week. The Seminoles went 5-7 last season.

What Florida State brings

Their offense starts with the run game. FSU is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game, and has 10 rushing touchdowns. Ousmane Kromah carries most of that and is third in the ACC with 99.3 yards per game, logging 397 yards on 64 carries (6.2 per carry) and five touchdowns. He has run for at least 80 yards and scored in every game, and he already has two 50-yard breakaway runs.

Then there is Ashton Daniels. With him, a defense doesn't really know what its coming up against.

As of Week 5, he is 58-for-97 for 928 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions, plus 142 rushing yards. His 16.0 yards per completion leads the ACC. However, the Alabama game had it all: 377 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and three interceptions in a 14-point loss. Daniels was sacked three times in each of Florida State's two losses and once in each of its two wins.

His favorite downfield target is Duce Robinson, who proved to be a challenge for Virginia last year with nine catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. Robinson leads FSU with 13 catches for 262 yards this season (20.2 per catch), and his five career 120-yard games are the second-most among active players, behind only Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith. Jayvan Boggs just had 122 yards against Central Arkansas, so there's a second deep threat too.

One important thing to note is that Florida State is perfect in the red zone, 17 for 17, and kicker Gabe Panikowski has never missed a field goal in college (20 for 20). If the Seminoles get inside the 20, they're coming away with points.

One thing is working in Virginia's favor. Running back Samuel Singleton Jr. got hurt at Alabama, and FSU's notes say he'll miss significant time. He was a receiving threat out of the backfield and averaged 32 yards per kick return. Wednesday's initial ACC availability report also listed linebacker Blake Nichelson and defensive lineman Darryll Desir as out.

West Virginia, part two?

On paper, Virginia's defense is one of the best in the country. It's allowing 247 total yards and 13 points per game. Opponents are throwing for just 130.3 yards per game (the fewest in the ACC), completing 47.6% of their passes and posting an 84.2 efficiency rating, the lowest any defense has allowed nationally.

West Virginia is the outlier. The Mountaineers ran for 247 yards in Charlotte and had two 100-yard rushers. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for 123 yards and three touchdowns, and Cam Cook also topped 100. Virginia never really figured out the quarterback run game, and that's how a team that passed for 190 yards put up 437 total.

Florida State has basically the same pieces: a quarterback who can run, a big back averaging over 6 yards a carry and, on top of that, the best receiver Virginia will see all year. FSU had 514 yards against this defense last season.

We know the offense is starting with Kromah. If he's getting 5 and 6 yards on first down, the safeties have to come up, and that's how Robinson ends up one-on-one downfield. Kam Robinson is the guy to watch here. He has two tackles for loss and no sacks so far as he works back from the ACL tear, but Elliott said after Delaware, "I think Kam is back to being Kam." Maddox Marcellus, who has 19 tackles next to him, matters just as much in this one.

The pass rush hasn't been overwhelming either, with eight sacks in four games. Matthew Fobbs-White and Nnanna Anyanwu each have two. Fisher Camac has four quarterback hurries but is still looking for his first sack.

What this defense does do is take the ball away. Virginia has six interceptions, three by Brandyn Hillman and two by Keke Adams last week, and it has forced at least one turnover in 13 of its last 15 games. Daniels has thrown at least one interception in three of FSU's four games. He'll give Virginia chances, and Virginia has to take them.

Third downs might decide it

This is where the season numbers line up in Virginia's favor on both sides.

Virginia's defense is holding opponents to 32% on third down (19 of 59). Florida State converts 41% on offense, which is fine but nothing special. If Virginia stops Kromah on first and second down, Daniels ends up throwing in obvious passing situations, and that's when his turnovers show up.

The other side is worse for FSU. Their opponents are converting 46% of their third downs against the Seminoles (27 of 59). Virginia is at 38% on third down, and it's 11-for-13 on fourth down. That's a lot of extended drives for an offense that already leads the ACC in time of possession (33:54 a game).

For a team trying to keep Florida State's playmakers on the sideline, long drives are about the best defense there is.

Pribula gets a good matchup

Beau Pribula has been about as efficient as anyone in the country. He's 66 of 86 (76.7%, fourth nationally) for 793 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception. Against Delaware, he went 24 of 28 for 279 yards and four scores, then ran for a fifth, all before leaving in the third quarter.

Florida State's pass defense is the weakest unit on either side. The Seminoles allow 290 passing yards per game, 135th out of 138 FBS teams, and about 8.3 yards per attempt. They've given up eight touchdown passes and picked off three.

Depth back there is getting thin, too. Wednesday's report listed four Florida State defensive backs as out: Karson Hobbs, Jamari Howard, Zae Thomas, and Antonio Cromartie Jr. None of them has been a regular starter (FSU's notes show one career start among the four), so the starting secondary is mostly intact. It does mean fewer bodies to rotate in if Virginia keeps spreading the ball around.

And Virginia keeps spreading the ball around. Eighteen different players have caught a pass, and each of the last three games has had at least 10. Rico Flores Jr. had career highs of nine catches and 113 yards against Delaware in only his second game back. Kam Courtney leads the team with 15 catches and caught a 52-yard touchdown last week. Martin has three touchdowns on seven catches.

That leads to the one thing I'd watch on the other side: the run game has gotten worse every week. Virginia ran for 258 yards against NC State, then 237, then 157, then 119 on 41 carries against Delaware (counting the five sacks Delaware got). Florida State gives up 4.2 yards a carry, so running it should be more realistic than it was last week. Still, if the ground game stalls again, I'd rather see Pribula throwing on first down than Virginia running into a wall to protect its time-of-possession number. It will be interesting to see what Kitchings draws up on first downs.

Pass protection matters too. Five sacks is too many, even in a 39-point win. Florida State averages just 1.75 sacks a game, so there's no excuse for giving up that many again. If the line holds up, the big plays should be there.

How to Watch

TV: ESPN2

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.

Radio: Virginia Sports Radio Network

Odds

As of Thursday, FanDuel listed Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 51.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Final Score Prediction

I had 38-17 last week. Virginia won 42-3, so I'll take that as a sign that the defense is closer to the team from the first two weeks than the one in Charlotte.

This one's harder, though. Florida State has more talent than its record shows, and Daniels, Kromah and Robinson can put up points on anyone. The Seminoles scored 36 at Alabama. They're going to hit a couple of big plays, and Kromah is probably going to have a good day.

They also give up big plays, they struggle on third-down defense and they turn it over. Virginia has the better quarterback, the better defense, and a coaching staff that has been here before. Elliott went 3-2 in Tallahassee as a Clemson assistant.

My guess is Pribula throws for 300, Virginia gets a takeaway or two off Daniels, and the defense holds Kromah well enough to keep Robinson from beating it deep all afternoon. Virginia should win the third-down battle and keep the ball for long stretches in the second half. It'll be much closer than the Delaware game and WVU, and it might be uncomfortable for a quarter.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia 31, Florida State 27