Predicting Where Virginia Will Be Ranked in This Week’s AP Top 25

The college football season is now one step closer to wrapping up the regular season, and fortunately for the Virginia Cavaliers, they are now back on track.

The Cavaliers were previously on a seven-game hot streak filled with upsets and overtime thrillers, but after they dropped their week eleven matchup against Wake Forest, it looked like they may have been losing momentum. That was not a contest that they were projected to lose, which only proves the surprise element that comes with college football. As a result of their loss, UVA dropped eight spots in the AP Top 25, landing at No. 20.

Once week twelve rolled around, Virginia hunkered down and got right to work on their daunting matchup against Duke. The Blue Devils were likely to win according to numerous projections, but UVA pulled off another upset this season, and it was not nearly as suspenseful as previous weeks had been. Now that they have secured another win, it's reasonable to say that Virginia will fall into the Nos. 18-19 range in this week's AP Top 25 poll, but more likely No. 19.

What Was Different About Virginia's Matchup vs Duke?

A football player in a white and navy blue uniform running with a brown football past a player in a blue jersey — Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) controls the ball around Duke Blue Devils linebacker Luke Mergott (34) during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers have become widely known for their down-to-the-wire games. Tony Elliott has drilled a "fourth-quarter mentality" into their heads, and they have carried that frame of mind with them into each matchup. However, their week twelve matchup ended in a different fashion — there wasn't much uncertainty as the clock ran down. Simply put, UVA was going to win this contest.

Compared to their previous nail-biting nights, namely their wins over Florida State (46-38), Louisville (30-27), Washington State (22-20) and North Carolina (17-16), this was a massive change for the Cavaliers. While fans weren't as anxious this time around, Tony Elliott explained during his postgame press conference that he didn't feel any different:

"I think maybe y'all felt like that. I didn't. I mean, and I had to apologize as I was talking to J a second ago on the radio. I said, 'Please don't go back and watch the TV copy,' because I was pretty animated there in the fourth quarter. I was pretty hot because I felt like, man, there was a second where we just relaxed for a millisecond, right, which created an opportunity for them,right, to put up 14 points, you know, on us. And I'm like, man, I want to finish because again, and I was telling this to Sage, and we were sitting on the field, and he said it too. He's like, man, we're laxed. I said, yes, you have to realize we haven't been here before, right?

This is a team and a program that hasn't been in this situation, and we have to teach, and I have to teach. And so I didn't feel like that. I mean, because for me it's all the way until it's all zeros on the clock, because football is a crazy game, and the ball can bounce anyway. So I really didn't feel that, to be honest with you. I know the scoreboard and all that did, but I really wanted to challenge the team to take another step, right? To just finish. No relaxing on the sideline because, again, that's how football works. You relax for one play, and it could change the entire game."

His statement couldn't be any more accurate. The minute a program gets comfortable, that's when games are lost, which ultimately results in a program dropping in the rankings. Elliott is not one to mind the rankings throughout the season, but now is the time when they truly matter.