Ranking Virginia’s Remaining Four Matchups From Easiest to Most Difficult

Which of the four remaining matchups will be the most difficult for Virginia to win?

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) breaks a tackle and scores a touchdown in the second quarer at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers have endured a challenging season in terms of competition, but they've managed to come out on top almost every time. The only exception to their winning ways was on Sept. 6 when they played NC State and fell 35-31. Since then, the Cavaliers have won six consecutive games, with their latest victory coming during week nine when they took down North Carolina 17-16.

Including UVA's upcoming game against California, the Cavaliers have four remaining games on their schedule. We have ranked each matchup according to level of difficulty, starting with what is expected to be the easiest meeting for Virginia moving forward.

4. Wake Forest (5-2, 2-2): Nov. 8

Oct 11, 2025; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons running back Jamario Clements (3) runs the ball and is tackled by Oregon State Beavers linebacker Andy Alfieri (88) during the second half at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Wake Forest is likely going to be the most straightforward matchup for Virginia, but that doesn't mean it will be easy. The last time UVA played the Demon Deacons was in 2024, and the Cavaliers just barely pulled off a 31-30 victory after a fourth-quarter surge in which they scored 14 points. Throughout Virginia-Wake Forest history, UVA has claimed 35 wins while the Demon Deacons have only secured 17.

3. California (5-3, 2-2): Nov. 1

Oct 24, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; California Golden Bears wide receiver Jacob de Jesus (21) runs after a catch as Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Isaiah Brown-Murray (9) defends during the second quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

The Virginia-California matchup is just days away, and the Cavaliers have a 67.6% of winning according to ESPN's FPI. UVA has never played California in college football before, so this is new territory for both programs. Right now, Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 52.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

2. Virginia Tech (3-5, 2-2): Nov. 29

Oct 24, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; California Golden Bears linebacker Harrison Taggart (7) tackles Virginia Tech Hokies running back Terion Stewart (8) during the third quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech experienced a bit of a drought during weeks seven and eight after dropping matchups against Wake Forest (30-23) and Georgia Tech (35-20). However, they bounced back during week nine and defeated California 42-34. ESPN's FPI gives the Cavaliers a 77.2% chance of winning. The Hokies have a history of leaving UVA in the dust, as they've won 62 games against the Cavaliers, while UVA has only won 38. Their last meeting resulted in UVA taking a brutal 37-17 loss on Nov. 30, 2024. Will the outcome be different this time around?

1. Duke (4-3, 3-1): Nov. 15

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive back Jy Gilmore (14) celebrates a play with defensive back Omar Daniels (9) during the second half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

This is expected to be Virginia's most daunting matchup of what’s left in its schedule. According to ESPN's FPI, UVA only has a 39.5% chance of winning, while the Blue Devils have a 60.5% chance of winning. UVA holds more wins (41) over Duke (34) in their history playing together, but the Blue Devils have an incredibly powerful offensive unit this year. Quarterback Darian Mensah, in particular, has been a standout on the team. He is completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,211 yards this season, and has recorded 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. Mensah will be the top player that UVA will need to focus on when their matchup approaches.

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