SP+ Predicts Final Score for No. 17 Virginia vs Virginia Tech Matchup

What does the SP+ prediction say about Virginia's upcoming matchup vs Virginia Tech?

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers defensive end Mitchell Melton (17) reacts after recovering a fumble against the Duke Blue Devils during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are about to embark on their regular-season finale matchup against Virginia Tech on Saturday. This season has been full of surprises and success for the Cavaliers, but will they be able to pull off a win and clinch their spot in the ACC Championship?

This is a massive opportunity for UVA, and fortunately, numerous projections show the Cavaliers coming out on top over the Hokies. However, one projection we haven't looked at yet is the SP+ metric.

ESPN's Bill Connelly Releases Latest SP+ Prediction

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) runs the ball against Duke Blue Devils defensive end Tyshon Reed (10) during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Bill Connelly of ESPN sums up his SP+ metric by stating:

"It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does.

It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

With that being said, Connelly's SP+ prediction for this weekend shows that the Cavaliers have a 92% chance of winning the matchup; his projected score comes in at 38-16.

WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS

Rebs 37, #Clanga 22
UGA 36, GT 23
Indiana 43, Purdue 9
A&M 30, Texas 25
Miami 30, Pitt 24
Ohio St 31, Michigan 17
Oregon 29, UW 23
Vols 32, Vandy 31
FSU 28, Florida 21
Bama 27, Auburn 21
Irish 42, Stanford 10

Some strange lines in here.https://t.co/w9ANgYY9XO pic.twitter.com/Ob0uB01pN2

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 24, 2025

During UVA's last matchup against Duke, the Cavaliers got a little too comfortable for head coach Tony Elliott's liking. With so much riding on the line for the Virginia-Virginia Tech game, it's imperative that UVA remains focused. As Elliott explained, a football game can change in the blink of an eye:

"... I mean, because for me it's all the way until it's all zeros on the clock, because football is a crazy game, and the ball can bounce anyway. So I really didn't feel that, to be honest with you. I know the scoreboard and all that did, but I really wanted to challenge the team to take another step, right? To just finish. No relaxing on the sideline because, again, that's how football works. You relax for one play, and it could change the entire game."

The regular season finale matchup is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 29, with kickoff happening at 7 p.m. EST. Fortunately for UVA, this will be a home game at Scott Stadium, so the energy from Virginia fans will likely be at an all-time high.